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2

Jul 2026

英镑小幅走高：美国经济数据走软抵消美联储鹰派立场及英国政治不确定性影响

英镑逆美元走强收涨0.14%，美就业数据低于预期短线施压美元；但通胀黏性与美联储偏鹰限制上行。政局不确定推升波动率，期权跨式或占优。

2

Jul 2026

随着霍尔木兹海峡石油运输逐步恢复、OPEC+增产预期升温，WTI油价下挫并逼近冲突前水平

霍尔木兹通行恢复叠加OPEC+或再增产，WTI回吐地缘溢价至68美元附近；EIA库存续降但低于预期。机构建议买入8月65美元看跌期权，设70美元止损。

1

Jul 2026

沃什放弃前瞻性指引，强调2%通胀目标与人工智能评估，市场转向数据驱动

沃什海外首秀：美联储淡化前瞻指引、强化价格稳定并评估政策框架，拒谈利率路径；通胀仍高于2%目标。交易转向数据驱动，衍生品捕捉波动成主线。

1

Jul 2026

道指触及52,500点，Alphabet重塑价格加权指数结构，疲软数据令非农就业成为市场焦点

道指创新高至52,500点，Alphabet纳入强化价格加权下AI/云计算敞口，推升指数但上涨广度偏弱；经济数据走软，聚焦提前公布NFP，建议以DIA看跌期权/熊市价差低成本对冲回撤风险。

1

Jul 2026

在劳动力短缺推动下，俄罗斯失业率降至2.1%，俄央行利率维持高位

俄罗斯5月失业率降至2.1%创低，反映劳动力短缺加剧并推升通胀；俄央行或维持16%+紧缩。策略：短端利率互换、卢布跨式期权，配置能源材料。

1

Jul 2026

英镑走强，疲软的美国就业数据抑制美元涨势，市场聚焦非农就业报告

英镑因美国就业数据偏弱小幅反弹至1.3277，但美联储坚持抗通胀、拒绝前瞻指引。非农或重燃美元强势；技术面承压，逢高沽空与看跌期权成焦点。

1

Jul 2026

沃什指出通胀风险缓解，但美联储仍聚焦2%目标，市场保持平稳

沃什称通胀改善但仍偏高，重申2%目标优先、路径未指引；劳动力稳、AI效应未明。高利率更久压波动，利差支撑美元，期权策略可布局。

1

Jul 2026

在美国经济数据疲软及沃什言论打压美元、非农就业报告发布前，欧元/美元收窄跌幅

欧元/美元受美数据走弱及沃什偏鸽表态提振反弹，市场仍高估9月加息概率；非农前建议做多波动率，布局近端跨式与远期虚值看涨期权。

1

Jul 2026

哥伦比亚央行意外加息75个基点至12%，推升终端利率预期并拉平收益率曲线

哥伦比亚央行意外加息75bp至12%，重启紧缩且未给前瞻指引，通胀上行风险突出。市场或上修前端利率、曲线趋平；高利差支撑比索，波动率策略受益。

1

Jul 2026

印度GDP增速放缓，星展即时预测显示进一步降温，提升对冲与波动率关注度

印度GDP增速Q1降至7.8%，DBS Nowcast指Q2或放缓至6.9%、全年仅6.5%。增长动能减弱或触发降息预期，股指对冲、做多波动及关注卢比贬压。

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