Live Updates

7

Jul 2026

CFTC数据显示：受中国需求担忧及美元走强拖累，投机者削减原油净多头头寸

CFTC显示投机情绪降温：原油非商业净多头回落至11.05万手、周减4100手；叠加中国PMI收缩、美国库存意外累库与美元走强，油价短线承压。

7

Jul 2026

CFTC数据显示：投机者加大澳元看空押注，净空头进一步扩大

CFTC澳元非商业净持仓降至-17.7K，净空增4.7K、空头扩36%：投机情绪转弱。美澳政策分化与铁矿石回落压制汇价，下行动能或延续但需防拥挤反转风险。

7

Jul 2026

澳元走强，疲软的美国就业数据打压美元，市场静待美联储会议纪要

澳元连涨逼近0.6950，受美国就业走弱压制美元；但美澳利差偏向美元且0.7100技术阻力强，叠加中澳需求降温，反弹或成逢高做空窗口。

7

Jul 2026

纽约梅隆银行指出中国资产配置不足，期权市场已计入刺激政策或将推动反弹的预期

纽约梅隆称中国股汇债仍显著低配，人民币为APAC持有最少货币；跨境持仓极低、外资抛压缓和。若政策落地与基本面企稳，或触发温和回补，期权布局窗口显现。

7

Jul 2026

印尼贸易逆差终结连续72个月顺差纪录，引发对卢比汇率波动加剧的担忧

警惕拐点：印尼5月转为16.1亿美元贸易逆差，终结72个月顺差；油气缺口创纪录、进口韧性压制外部缓冲，建议布局USD/IDR看涨期权及EIDO看跌，并以布伦特对冲油价上行风险。

7

Jul 2026

受沃勒鹰派言论及美国服务业数据提振，纽元/美元跌至0.5700附近

沃勒鹰派表态叠加强劲服务业与就业数据，支撑美元走强，NZD/USD承压0.5700。美联储与RBNZ政策分化扩大，反弹或短暂，看跌期权成较优对冲与收益策略。

7

Jul 2026

受强劲美国国债收益率和美元走强限制反弹空间，金价下跌；市场关注美联储会议纪要和CPI数据

金价回落至4,153美元受美债收益率与美元韧性压制，技术面“死亡交叉”偏空。CPI临近或推升期权隐波，资金降净多头；关键支撑4,100/4,000。警惕通胀意外引发反弹。

7

Jul 2026

美元指数回吐涨幅，疲弱非农就业数据抑制美联储加息预期，油价涨势回落

爆点：非农不及预期令DXY冲高回落至100.92，FedWatch显示加息预期降温；油价回落缓解短期通胀，美元或转区间震荡，期权可卖短期限波动率。

7

Jul 2026

随着欧佩克+增产且美国原油供应激增，原油“战争溢价”消退，油价承压下行

战争溢价消退致油价回归供需定价：WTI/布伦特分别约68.5/72美元。OPEC+增产、SPR释储叠加美国产量新高，曲线转远期升水；关注EIA、FOMC及OPEC+会议。

7

Jul 2026

荷兰合作银行预计新西兰联储将加息25个基点；新西兰元走势承压，上行空间有限

荷兰合作银行料RBNZ 7月8日加息25bp至2.5%已被充分定价；油价回落与复苏乏力压制鹰派空间，纽元上行受限、下行风险偏大，密切关注措辞变化。

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