Live Updates

7

Jul 2026

日本工资增长不及预期令日本央行加息前景蒙阴，美元/日元走高背景下日元持续承压

日本5月工资增速3.2%逊预期，叠加东京核心CPI 1.9%低于目标，强化日本央行谨慎加息预期，日元承压；建议布局美元/日元看涨期权，出口股或受益。

7

Jul 2026

英镑兑日元升至18年高位，英银与日央行政策分化支撑套息交易

英镑兑日元突破217创18年新高，技术面偏多但RSI逼近超买或整理。英日央行政策分化扩大利差，强化套息交易；期权策略看218/220，215下方对冲。

7

Jul 2026

美元小幅走强，日元徘徊于近四十年低位，干预风险成市场焦点

美元/日元逼近40年高位，日元独弱主导升势。财务省淡化口头干预、或待空头累积突袭。负实际利率与美日利差支撑套息；关注工资、经常账户及FOMC纪要。

7

Jul 2026

美元/新加坡元跌势动能减弱，大华银行提示短期或维持在1.2890至1.2990区间震荡

UOB称USD/SGD急跌后动能衰减，未来1–3周料在1.2890–1.2990区间整固；低波动宜卖宽跨收权利金，并防后续上破1.3000。

7

Jul 2026

英镑/美元连续第八日上涨，疲软美国数据打压美元，关注1.3400附近200日指数移动均线

英镑兑美元连涨逼近1.3400关键压制，驱动更多源于美元回撤修正；美国就业走弱令降息预期升温，叠加英国通胀黏性与英银偏鹰，短线关注纪要与数据扰动。

7

Jul 2026

美元企稳，因美联储鹰派立场支撑收益率；欧元与英镑区间震荡，日元干预风险上升

钩子：美元强势或未完。沃勒鹰派叠加服务业韧性支撑DXY；欧元区二轮通胀风险压制欧元；美元/日元逼近干预线；澳洲通胀回落削弱澳元；原油、黄金波动下建议期权策略。

7

Jul 2026

CFTC数据显示：英国通胀降温推动英镑承压缓解，英镑净空头头寸收窄

钩子：英镑空头回补是否预示拐点？CFTC显示非商业净空收窄至-10.21万；通胀降温下BoE终端利率预期下移，隐波或回落，策略偏卖出GBP/USD虚值看跌。

7

Jul 2026

美国信号趋软之际，CFTC数据显示黄金投机者净多头头寸增至19.4万手

CFTC显示黄金非商业净多头升至194K，三周连增。就业走弱与通胀黏性推升避险与政策转向预期，机构看涨加码，期权多头或看跌价差机会凸显。

7

Jul 2026

CFTC数据显示：受通胀粘性影响美联储按兵不动，标普500净空头头寸进一步加深

警惕回撤：CFTC显示标普500净持仓降至-3.76万手，机构看空升温。通胀粘性与高利率预期压制估值，建议低位VIX下配置保护性看跌期权对冲。

7

Jul 2026

CFTC数据显示：政策分化延续，日元净空头进一步加深，美元/日元仍偏上行

CFTC显示日元非商业净空头扩大至-155.1千张，反映政策分化推升看空与套息交易。拥挤空头或触发干预性反转，建议以USD/JPY看涨期权布局160区间。

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