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22

Jul 2026

欧元/美元企稳，能源价格上涨且市场预期欧洲央行进一步收紧货币政策

能源与天然气反弹推升市场押注ECB更鹰，EUR/USD仍偏强；ING预计汇价或回落至1.1380，ECB再度上修空间有限，建议布局看跌期权或区间策略。

22

Jul 2026

美国抵押贷款申请量反弹1.9%，显示住房需求韧性犹存且“利率高位维持更久”风险上升

MBA：7月17日当周美抵押贷款申请环比回升1.9%扭转下滑，住房需求韧性或推升通胀粘性、强化“高利率更久”定价；关注做空10年期国债期货及房建股牛市价差。

22

Jul 2026

美股在科技股领涨下走高，尽管美债收益率上行，市场仍静待SPCX催化因素

美股科技股推动强劲反弹，但美债收益率上行、加息预期升温；建议以跨式期权捕捉财报波动，并用看跌期权对冲SPCX解禁、长债与通胀风险。

22

Jul 2026

金价反弹，受半导体板块去杠杆及央行需求提振，金价逼近200日均线阻力位

黄金止跌反弹，半导体交易降温引发流动性回流成催化；央行持续购金构筑结构性底部。短期关注200日均线4,505–4,510阻力，宜以风险界定期权策略应对。

22

Jul 2026

在市场对AI资本开支的审视升温之际，半导体股在Alphabet、英特尔与德州仪器业绩发布前反弹

半导体板块强势反弹领涨，财报季前隐含波动率高企。市场押注云端资本开支与HBM景气延续，但AI投入回报与现金流仍待验证，宜以铁鹰/价差等限定风险策略应对。

22

Jul 2026

三菱日联金融集团警告称，关税政策转向或将推升外汇波动率，美元/亚洲货币被视为最为脆弱

MUFG称《第122条》到期转向更具针对性的《第301条》或重燃关税不确定性，抬升汇率波动；短期利多美元、USD/Asia上行，久拖恐引发美元反转。

22

Jul 2026

布伦特原油触及94美元，伊朗紧张局势与红海航运风险推升油价并考验股市

布油受中东紧张及航运咽喉风险溢价推升，突破94美元、周涨逾10%。美股期货承压、欧股走强；英国CPI回落但油价或反噬。建议能化看涨期权与GBP/USD跨式布局。

22

Jul 2026

美元/瑞郎下跌，美国与伊朗紧张局势推升美元并加剧红海能源供应忧虑

中东冲突升级推升避险买盘与油价，美元获支撑；瑞士利率维持0%致美瑞利差超500bp，USD/CHF上看0.8170，宜布局看涨价差。

22

Jul 2026

欧洲股市企稳，英国通胀降温；伊朗遭袭推升油价，科技行业资本开支成焦点

欧股转强但美股期指走弱；英6月CPI回落、核心与服务通胀仍粘性。油价因中东冲突飙升推升收益率；建议增配原油看涨、美元/日元保护性期权。

22

Jul 2026

英镑因财政灵活性表态承压跌破1.34美元关口，CPI数据分化令英央行前景蒙阴

英镑跌破1.34，财政“灵活性”引发加杠杆担忧；6月CPI表面回落、核心黏性叠加油价冲击，或抬升汇率与利率波动，建议跨式期权与收益率对冲。

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