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22

Jul 2026

在中东与黑海地区供应中断风险加剧、或引发8月供应收紧之际，布伦特原油被视为估值偏低

中东红海与波斯湾紧张叠加黑海CPC停运，供应冲击风险陡升；布伦特91美元或被低估，期权与裂解价差偏多策略或迎窗口期。

22

Jul 2026

亚洲科技股涨势消退，纳斯达克期货在Alphabet财报公布前走低，油价推动美债收益率上行

科技反弹乏力、纳指期货走低；Alphabet财报与1900亿美元CapEx预期引爆AI变现考验。油价逼近100美元推升通胀与美债收益率，日元、瑞郎承压，衍生品对冲升温。

22

Jul 2026

英国地方社区与地方政府部（DCLG）5月房价涨幅放缓至2.7%，强化降息预期并加剧英镑承压

英国DCLG房价指数5月同比增速降至2.7%（前值3.8%），地产通胀动能转弱或促英银转鸽；关注做多SONIA、做空英镑及住宅建商对冲机会。

22

Jul 2026

风险偏好回升推高美元，日元和瑞郎走弱；美元/日元料逼近165

股市偏强叠加央行“缓慢收紧”，低收益货币日元、瑞郎承压；油气高企支撑美元与挪威克朗。USD/JPY望逼近164/165，USD/CHF关注0.8150/70突破，欧元韧性有限。

22

Jul 2026

日元反弹，报道称日本央行可能加快政策收紧，且在CPI数据与议息会议前干预风险上升

彭博称日银或加速加息，日元自163.23低位反弹至162.90，干预预期升温。周五CPI与下周决议或引爆波动，利差收敛压制美元/日元。

22

Jul 2026

英镑走弱，伯纳姆缓解生活成本承诺重燃债务担忧并加剧波动

伯纳姆政策红利迅速消退，英镑兑欧元涨幅尽吐；减税与社宅融资存疑令财政可持续性承压。建议交易转向波动率期权策略，并对冲国债及英镑下行风险。

22

Jul 2026

美国股市上涨，国债收益率触及多年实际高位，芯片股走强提振股指

美股在美债收益率与实际利率攀升、市场重估更鹰派美联储路径下仍走强；芯片股强势反弹推升大盘，欧股同步走高，后续聚焦Alphabet与特斯拉财报及资本开支指引。

22

Jul 2026

欧元/英镑走高，英国通胀降温打压英镑；市场焦点转向欧洲央行利率决议

英6月CPI降温拖累英镑，EUR/GBP升至0.8525；核心通胀仍粘性。市场聚焦周四欧央行决议，料维持利率不变，欧元上行动能或延续。

22

Jul 2026

英国CPI降至2.6%，核心通胀仍具粘性，英国央行维持偏鹰派观望立场

英国6月CPI降至2.6%低于预期，但核心通胀黏性不减；市场下调降息押注并定价年内收紧43bp，英镑衍生品隐波或抬升，关注1.3380枢轴与1.3550阻力位。

22

Jul 2026

英国6月CPI上升0.1%，缓解英国央行压力，降息预期升温

英国6月CPI环比仅升0.1%平稳落位，通胀动能温和。央行鹰派压力缓释，SONIA隐含Q3降息25bp概率近68%；英镑承压、富时100期权偏多。

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