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27

Jul 2026

布伦特油价跌破90美元/桶，中东局势暂歇叠加俄罗斯供应中断扩大

布伦特短暂跌破90美元后回撤超7%，美伊暂停行动缓和但风险溢价未退。俄黑海码头停摆收紧供给、红海航运受阻，投机净多头上升，波动与反弹风险加大。

27

Jul 2026

随着美伊停火令美联储加息押注降温，黄金走稳，关注能否突破4200美元关口

黄金跳空上行回到4100美元附近，地缘降温与加息预期回落压制美元。关注守住20日均线4072与突破4200触发，多头期权/期货布局，严控跌破4052回撤风险。

27

Jul 2026

在油价风险攀升之际，市场对美联储加息的押注持续，欧元/美元徘徊于月度低位附近

欧元/美元徘徊月度低位1.1369；能源回落压制美联储加息预期，但年内仍存再加息定价。中东冲突推升通胀风险，美国经济数据强劲托底美元。技术面偏空。

27

Jul 2026

欧元/美元反弹至1.140上方显脆弱，能源风险与美联储主导的美元需求阴云笼罩

欧元/美元重返1.140上方但反弹脆弱：地缘风险与高企TTF削弱贸易条件，美元避险及FOMC前仓位再压汇价；油价若返100美元或失守1.1380。

27

Jul 2026

德国Ifo商业景气指数超预期，预期分项大幅上升，欧元反应平淡

德国7月IFO升至86.6超预期，预期指数跳升而现状回落，经济“预期强、现实弱”分化或推升欧元波动与Bund曲线熊陡机会，建议布局EUR/USD跨式及收益率陡峭化。

27

Jul 2026

美元/印度卢比因油价回落、美国关税冲击及印度央行资金流入支撑卢比而波动加剧

USD/INR周涨0.3%至96.57，油价与地缘风险推升波动。美国对印加征10%关税致短压，但RBI引导FCNR(B)/ECB或吸引800亿美元支撑卢比；建议短期买入看涨对冲。

27

Jul 2026

欧元区私人部门贷款增速不及预期，6月增幅放缓，强化市场对欧洲央行降息的押注

欧元区6月私营部门贷款同比增3%不及预期，信贷扩张温和。或强化欧央行宽松预期：欧元承压、德债受益，建议外汇期权做空、利率期货做多并用股指期权对冲。

27

Jul 2026

德国Ifo经济预期指数7月攀升，提振欧元与DAX指数前景

德国7月Ifo预期指数升至86.7（前值84.1），情绪显著反转。利好欧元与DAX，中枢偏强；降息预期或降温，德债收益率上行风险抬升。

27

Jul 2026

欧元/美元熊市趋势聚焦1.1300颈线破位，头肩顶风险升温

欧元兑美元延续熊市，或构筑头肩顶，1.1300为颈线与斐波那契及100日均线共振支撑；若本周有效跌破，或触发显著下行，建议期权/期货空头布局。

27

Jul 2026

美国-伊朗局势暂缓致风险溢价降温，WTI下挫7%，波动率压缩期权交易升温

WTI开盘跳空暴跌逾7%至82.50美元：美伊暂停互袭令地缘风险溢价快速回落，IV或收缩；关注卖期权与熊市价差，警惕胡塞扰动反噬。

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