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30

Jul 2026

美联储维持利率不变、中东紧张局势扰动油市，WTI 跌破83美元/桶

获利了结致WTI回落至82.80美元附近、布伦特挫近5%；但EIA单周去库716.7万桶显示供需紧平衡。地缘风险未散，建议逢低配置平值看涨期权及牛市价差。

30

Jul 2026

美联储鹰派维持利率不变叠加欧元区GDP数据与欧洲央行政策分化，欧元/美元或面临剧烈波动

欧元/美元现于1.1465附近，对风险偏好高度敏感；美联储偏鹰暂停支撑美元。建议以短期限跨式博弈GDP波动，并于1.1550逢高配置看跌期权对冲。

30

Jul 2026

日本7月海外债券净流出加深至8110亿日元，凸显支撑日元的资金回流态势

日本净对外债券投资7月负值扩至¥-8,114亿，净流出加剧、资金回流提振日元；建议配置JPY看涨期权，并做空长久期美债及JGB期货以对冲收益率上行。

30

Jul 2026

美联储按兵不动且沃什言论推升美债收益率曲线陡峭化，9月加息概率下滑

FOMC 9:3维持利率不变，Warsh“机制转换”冲击市场预期：9月加息概率降至65%，曲线2s10s陡峭化与长端通胀预期走升，建议布局长端上行及短端期权策略。

30

Jul 2026

胡塞武装拟对红海航运征收通行费，受曼德海峡附近封锁威胁影响油价上涨

胡塞拟对曼德海峡商船征收通行费并加码红海封锁，意在施压美国、设立收费先例；供应扰动预期推升WTI日内涨6.33%至83.32美元，油市波动溢价再起。

30

Jul 2026

英镑兑日元反弹至218上方，美联储决议令美元走弱，干预风险仍存

英镑/日元回升逾0.3%重返218上方，美元走弱与风险偏好提振；技术动能偏多，目标219-220，但需警惕日方干预与利差变化，波动或上行。

30

Jul 2026

美联储维持利率不变后美元兑日元回落；委员异议推升9月加息概率，日本政策分化延续

美联储第五次维持利率不变但投票偏鹰，9月加息预期坚挺推动美债曲线陡峭化；在美日利差高企与油价冲击下，美元/日元守163仍宜偏多，期权博弈164-165。

30

Jul 2026

美联储维持利率不变后，受美债收益率上行及期货基差转负影响，比特币回落

美联储按兵不动叠加长债收益率走高，BTC反弹乏力并陷62,000-68,000美元密集区；期货负基差致套利失效、流动性趋薄，警惕69,000阻力。

30

Jul 2026

微软因云业务驱动的盈利超预期而大涨，Meta因业绩不及预期及上调支出指引而走低

财报分化引爆科技股：微软云收入增27%、订单积压强劲提振股价；Meta盈利逊预期且上调支出承压。建议微软牛市价差、Meta看跌价差，波动期用铁鹰套利。

30

Jul 2026

美元下滑，美联储在分歧投票中维持利率不变；欧元和英镑走强，油价与金价上涨

美联储9:3维持利率不变引发政策分歧，美元指数回落、收益率下行，欧英货币走强；原油暴涨、金价创新高。市场聚焦GDP与核心PCE，波动或再升温。

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