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Live Updates

3

Aug 2026

随着瑞士通胀降温、美元企稳且交易员关注期权上行空间，美元/瑞郎小幅走高

瑞士通胀走软、SNB维持零利率，叠加美元指数企稳反弹，USD/CHF回测0.8110并偏上行；关注0.8200阻力，期权可布局卖虚值看跌或牛市价差。

3

Aug 2026

在1.2790支撑位守住的情况下，美元/新元震荡走低，1.2875阻力位限制反弹空间

USD/SGD跌至1.2809后收1.2821，短线偏空但动能未增；关注1.2790支撑与1.2845/1.2875阻力。MAS偏紧与美联储降息或促下探1.2765。

3

Aug 2026

欧元/美元瞄准1.1500，期权交易员在美国关键就业数据公布前严阵以待波动

紧盯EUR/USD 1.1500关键支撑/阻力，汇价高位盘整；地缘不确定性叠加JOLTS与非农或放大波动，建议短期限跨式/宽跨式与障碍期权对冲，择机布局秋季看涨期权。

3

Aug 2026

土耳其贸易逆差扩大至104亿美元，尽管利率维持在50%仍强化里拉脆弱性

土耳其6月进出口反弹但进口更强，贸易逆差同比扩至104亿美元、约占GDP 6%。高利率难改国际收支压力；里拉脆弱警报升温，建议借USD/TRY期权与短期远期对冲贬值风险。

3

Aug 2026

股市普涨，科技股走强；交易员对冲中东风险，美元走软、黄金回落

周五风险偏好回升、广度改善但科技股动能不足；中东地缘风险升温或触发防御买盘。美元回落难强、收益率高企压制贵金属，建议期权对冲波动与下行。

3

Aug 2026

美联储宽松政策锚定美国国债收益率，汇率上行空间收窄之际巴西和墨西哥主权债吸引力提升

美联储前端利率趋稳、实际利率走软，为巴西与墨西哥释放短端宽松空间。建议把握再平衡窗口，增配长久期主权债及利率衍生品，适度下调对冲留汇率上行。

3

Aug 2026

台湾第二季度GDP增速放缓，内需主导；资金外流加剧，股市与新台币承压

台湾Q2 GDP同比放缓至12.9%，但环比动能9.9%偏强，内需贡献首超净出口。通胀或升温，央行Q4或加息12.5bp；外资抛售加剧，股汇债承压。

3

Aug 2026

市场严阵以待美国就业数据密集发布，美联储维持利率不变、收益率上行施压黄金与比特币

非农周成风险引爆点：美联储鹰派按兵不动、9月行动隐含概率68%。若就业强于9万推升收益率，黄金或探4000、比特币恐破6万；弱于8万或反弹。

3

Aug 2026

美国6月建筑支出意外下降，强化经济增长放缓信号并推升市场对美联储鸽派立场的预期

美国6月建筑支出环比降0.1%低于预期，暗示二季度末投资动能回落；或推升降息预期、压低短端收益率，并抬升地产链波动，关注保护性看跌与互换接收策略。

3

Aug 2026

美国ISM制造业价格支付指数超预期，强化投入品通胀压力及鹰派政策前景

7月美国ISM制造业价格支付指数报71.1高于预期70.3，投入品通胀韧性凸显，或促美联储高利率维持更久：美元偏强、股市承压，关注SOFR空头及期权对冲。

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