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3

Aug 2026

市场严阵以待美国就业数据密集发布，美联储维持利率不变、收益率上行施压黄金与比特币

非农周成风险引爆点：美联储鹰派按兵不动、9月行动隐含概率68%。若就业强于9万推升收益率，黄金或探4000、比特币恐破6万；弱于8万或反弹。

3

Aug 2026

美国6月建筑支出意外下降，强化经济增长放缓信号并推升市场对美联储鸽派立场的预期

美国6月建筑支出环比降0.1%低于预期，暗示二季度末投资动能回落；或推升降息预期、压低短端收益率，并抬升地产链波动，关注保护性看跌与互换接收策略。

3

Aug 2026

美国ISM制造业价格支付指数超预期，强化投入品通胀压力及鹰派政策前景

7月美国ISM制造业价格支付指数报71.1高于预期70.3，投入品通胀韧性凸显，或促美联储高利率维持更久：美元偏强、股市承压，关注SOFR空头及期权对冲。

3

Aug 2026

ISM制造业就业回升：暗示美联储立场趋于强硬，提振美国国债收益率与美元

美国ISM制造业就业指数7月跃升至52.8重返扩张区间，工厂用工超预期转强；或推升美债收益率、压制降息预期，利率与外汇衍生品需重新定价。

3

Aug 2026

中国PMI回落至收缩区间，通胀降温加剧市场对央行宽松预期

7月中国增长动能转弱：制造业PMI49.2再陷收缩，CPI降至0.5%通胀降温。关注央行加码宽松与人民币承压，商品、股指偏空，国债偏多。

3

Aug 2026

标普全球美国7月制造业PMI小幅上升，提振美元并令美国国债承压

标普全球7月美国制造业PMI报53.9略超预期，扩张动能延续，叠加经济韧性或重塑降息定价：利率偏防御、美股期权收租、美元偏强，大宗商品可布局牛市价差。

3

Aug 2026

兰特走势转弱，伊朗冲突推升油价、抬升南非风险溢价，南非央行面临更严密审视

兰特对美元升势减弱：伊朗冲突推升油价、恶化贸易条件，通胀超SARB目标且7月按兵不动，风险溢价或上行。复苏取决于通胀、油价与政策转向。

3

Aug 2026

纽约梅隆银行预计，面对油价上涨及美元走强的双重逆风，印度央行将维持基准利率在5.25%不变

聚焦RBI：BNY料政策利率5.25%按兵不动，通胀黏性与增长放缓并存；卢比受油价与强美元压制但干预限上行，策略转向卖波动、区间交易，偏好久期与套息。

3

Aug 2026

新加坡制造业PMI小幅升至51.4，显示扩张态势稳健并支撑市场对新元的乐观预期

新加坡7月制造业PMI升至51.4续处扩张区间，工业景气温和改善。电子需求回暖或支撑SGD与股指衍生品多头，但须防中国需求与美债利率扰动。

3

Aug 2026

巴西制造业PMI跌入收缩区间，加剧对雷亚尔、股市及利率预期的压力

巴西7月制造业PMI骤降至47.5重返收缩区间，工厂景气明显走弱；雷亚尔与Ibovespa恐承压、波动率抬升，市场或重估增长与货币政策路径。

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