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Live Updates

5

Aug 2026

欧元小幅走高，疲软美国数据与油价下跌降低美联储加息概率，市场聚焦非农就业数据

美国就业与服务业数据偏弱叠加油价下行，压低美联储加息预期，欧元走强至1.1554；建议非农前布局短期限欧元/美元跨式或看涨期权把握波动。

5

Aug 2026

失业率上升盖过强劲招聘与薪资增长，新西兰元及债券收益率下跌

二季度就业与薪资超预期但失业率升至5.6%压制纽元与收益率；市场仍定价未来12个月近100bp加息至3.50%。回调或成衍生品战术做多窗口。

5

Aug 2026

美国ISM非制造业（服务业）价格支付指数升至70.3，强化美联储利率“更高更久”预期并推升美债收益率

ISM美国服务业价格支付指数7月升至70.3并突破关键阈值，成本压力加剧或向终端通胀传导，强化美联储“更久更高”预期，利率、美元与波动率交易机会凸显。

5

Aug 2026

美国ISM服务业PMI不及预期，强化市场对美联储鸽派立场的押注并推动市场仓位调整

美国7月ISM服务业PMI降至54.1，低于预期54.5但仍扩张。数据偏弱促市场再定价降息路径：利率下行、美元承压、黄金受益，股市短期波动加大。

5

Aug 2026

英镑承压，荷兰合作银行提示英国央行利率预期重估及10月预算风险影响欧元/英镑走势

英镑兑欧元走弱，市场下修英央行收紧预期叠加10月预算案扰动或压制英镑；关注EUR/GBP回调0.8550布局，上破0.8588或上看0.8650。

5

Aug 2026

DAX指数在突破25,900点后，随着艾略特波浪理论第五浪上涨行情推进，目标指向26,702点

DAX仍处艾略特第五浪上攻窗口：上破25,900点确认趋势重启，首看26,702点并或延伸。回撤布局看涨期权/价差，止损设24,651点下方，叠加宽松与出口动能。

5

Aug 2026

贝森特承诺支持日元，随着日本扩大回购市场准入，美元/日元回落引发市场关注

美国拟扩容回购便利、力挺日本护盘日元，USD/JPY反弹面临干预压制。地缘风险与美数据共振加剧波动，建议逢高买入看跌及股指跨式，原油短期看涨对冲。

5

Aug 2026

卡什卡利暗示利率立场趋于鸽派，市场关注美元与美债收益率整固

卡什卡里淡化大幅加息，强调降通胀非压增长，称供给冲击主导且需统一沟通；情绪指标转鸽。衍生品宜押注美元、美债收益率区间盘整，布局SOFR期权收权利金。

5

Aug 2026

法国兴业银行认为，美日支撑日元举措实为贸易加权调整，以抑制亚洲美元走强

法国兴业称美日协同稳日元属美国贸易加权美元策略，意在约束美元对亚洲货币升值；单轮干预难逆趋势，隐波或跳升，期权跨式/看跌价差宜警惕。

5

Aug 2026

疲弱美国就业数据削弱美元并降温加息预期，金价跃升至4,185美元上方

就业转弱与油价回落共振，美元承压推升金价涨逾2.5%，一度突破4200后回落。FedWatch显示9月加息概率下调，市场聚焦非农及关键阻力4398。

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