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25

Sep 2026

瑞典央行将利率维持在1.75%，临时下调增值税及燃油税缓和通胀，抑制鹰派倾向

瑞典央行维持政策利率1.75%且未转鹰，通胀受临时减税与燃油补贴压制。市场预期年内按兵不动、春季价格回升，并已定价未来12个月加息近120基点。

25

Sep 2026

美元涨势停滞：油价回落缓解债券抛售，外资流入巩固支撑

油价回落降温美元动能，谈判或促霍尔木兹复航；美欧利差仍托底但政策分化收敛抑制破顶。外资12个月净买入美长债1.75万亿对冲逆差，美元料区间震荡，期权宜做铁鹰/宽跨。

25

Sep 2026

美元与美债收益率暂歇推动金价企稳，但美联储加息押注限制黄金涨幅

金价两连跌后于4305美元企稳但周线承压；美联储加息预期与高美债收益率抑制反弹。PCE、非农临近或放大波动，期权跨式及熊市价差成焦点。

25

Sep 2026

纽约联储主席威廉姆斯警示持续性供给冲击，美元指数走弱，AI生产率提升仍难现端倪

威廉姆斯警示持续性供给冲击抬升通胀、劳动力非主因，美元指数回落至101.05。策略：做空美元、增配商品对冲、做陡收益率曲线，并以跨式期权博弈科技估值波动。

25

Sep 2026

WTI油价持稳于91美元上方，海湾地区出口激增叠加霍尔木兹海峡风险

WTI守稳91美元上方，海湾出口激增压制反弹、霍尔木兹风险托底；库存意外累增强化区间震荡预期。衍生品宜布局铁鹰/宽跨式，并以虚值看涨对冲上冲96美元尾部风险。

25

Sep 2026

随着干预传闻升温、市场计价英国央行收紧政策，英镑兑日元下跌

警惕美日协同干预升级：GBP/JPY虽反弹仍跌至209.45附近，日元普涨压制交叉盘。建议以虚值看跌期权、熊市价差与降杠杆应对波动及英央行预期错配风险。

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