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12

Oct 2026

欧元/美元企稳于1.1215附近，美国消费者信心走软拖累美元，市场关注欧洲央行副行长讲话

欧元兑美元亚盘反弹至1.1215，受美信心数据疲弱拖累美元；但通胀预期走高强化美联储加息定价。欧元受欧洲财政风险压制，技术超卖提示反弹后再偏空布局。

12

Oct 2026

在中东袭击事件与系统性资金流动推升波动之际，WTI跌破90美元

WTI回落并围绕90美元震荡，因中东袭击与潜在美沙报复推升地缘溢价；CTA“扫荡”加剧波动。关注API/EIA库存与SPR置换，期权对冲。

12

Oct 2026

在美元走软及澳洲联储加息预期降温的支撑下，澳元/美元小幅走高

密歇根信心不及预期压制美元，澳元/美元反弹至0.6985；FedWatch显示11月加息预期降温、12月仍偏紧，MOVE回落利好风险资产；RBA加息概率至约20%，关注纪要与0.7020阻力。

12

Oct 2026

中东袭击事件与伊朗紧张局势升级引发避险情绪升温，油价与避险资产走强

中东冲突骤然升级：利雅得机场再遭袭、美国强化对伊海上封锁，市场或快速切换至“风险厌恶”。原油、黄金与避险货币受追捧，股指及商品货币承压。

12

Oct 2026

商业套期保值者在欧元、澳元和天然气上的持仓触及26周极值，投机资金空头拥挤化

商业类COT极值集中外汇与能源：欧元、澳元、比索及天然气读数触顶，投机空头/减仓拥挤或引发反转与逼空；金属与美元日元或维持区间整理。

12

Oct 2026

CFTC持仓显示欧元和澳元看空情绪加剧，日元多头仓位重新回升

CFTC最新持仓揭示关键拐点：欧元、澳元净空加深且动量偏弱，日元多头回补；黄金仍处拥挤交易高位，英镑持仓极低，配置需控风险。

12

Oct 2026

澳元扩大周度涨幅，市场在关键数据公布前押注美联储暂停加息

澳元周线收涨0.58%至0.6983，美元回吐涨幅；美信心下滑、通胀预期抬升。货币市场押注10月按兵不动81%、12月再加息81%，下周聚焦RBA纪要及美通胀数据。

12

Oct 2026

中国人民银行驳斥人民币被低估指控，欧盟经贸谈判聚焦汇率失衡问题

央行发文否认人民币低估与汇率操纵，强调出口优势源于产业竞争力；欧盟施压会谈聚焦失衡与汇率；外储回落至3.40万亿美元，2027起向IMF报送干预数据。

12

Oct 2026

在MAS政策区间维持美元/新元于1.28附近之际，美元/新元料将维持区间震荡走势

USD/SGD受MAS政策区间约束，NEER高于中点1.50%-1.80%；指示区间1.279-1.283，阻力1.2835、支撑上移1.2775，动能受限，料维持震荡。

12

Oct 2026

台湾创纪录贸易顺差提振新台币前景央行限制美元兑新台币波动幅度

台湾9月贸易顺差创纪录236亿美元、出口同比飙升60.9%，AI需求驱动外部收支改善；通胀升温临近央行会议。USD/TWD受外资流出与干预约束，区间策略可期。

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