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25

Sep 2026

美元/日元走高，美联储收紧政策指引，日本央行表态含糊且干预风险上升

美联储与日本央行同幅加息，但前瞻偏鹰、利差维持250-275bp推升美元/日元破158。建议以套息交易为主，辅以风险逆转与障碍期权对冲干预风险。

25

Sep 2026

美元在债券抛售中走强，油价持稳，交易员计价美联储进一步收紧政策

后端美债收益率随全球抛售上行，风险偏好降温推升美元；地缘紧张托底油价，布伦特或试探110美元；SOFR上移重定价加息，布局美元与能源衍生品。

25

Sep 2026

七国集团国债收益率波动牵动汇市焦点；美元兑人民币走强，日本警示或将干预汇市

G7主权收益率上行被重估为系统性议题；若收益率回落且节奏分化，汇率或剧烈重定价。中国成“异类”，美元兑人民币走强；中美利差叠加地产压力，日本强调干预与10年收益率5%阈值。

25

Sep 2026

全球收益率升至本轮周期高位，美国数据与油价波动推动美债抛售，美元走强

警惕利率与能源双重冲击：美债10年期收益率飙升至5.20%引领全球上行，短端承压；AI出口强劲、油价剧震，宜布局曲线做平、科技看涨及原油跨式并用股指看跌对冲。

25

Sep 2026

瑞典央行将利率维持在1.75%，临时下调增值税及燃油税缓和通胀，抑制鹰派倾向

瑞典央行维持政策利率1.75%且未转鹰，通胀受临时减税与燃油补贴压制。市场预期年内按兵不动、春季价格回升，并已定价未来12个月加息近120基点。

25

Sep 2026

美元涨势停滞：油价回落缓解债券抛售，外资流入巩固支撑

油价回落降温美元动能，谈判或促霍尔木兹复航；美欧利差仍托底但政策分化收敛抑制破顶。外资12个月净买入美长债1.75万亿对冲逆差，美元料区间震荡，期权宜做铁鹰/宽跨。

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