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17

Aug 2026

美元/日元反弹至159附近，尽管存在干预风险且日本国债收益率走高，日元仍表现滞后

美元/日元159关口反弹但动能不足；日本收益率飙至多年高位、通胀与干预风险交织。警惕160“天花板”，布局短期限看跌及跨式、障碍期权对冲波动。

17

Aug 2026

在美国数据走软打压美元之际，基金经理增持黄金净多头，中东风险仍挥之不去

通胀温和与就业走弱压制美元，美联储加息预期降温促资金加码黄金净多头；中东波斯湾风险推升原油并压低短端利率，部分机构增持空头对冲回撤。

17

Aug 2026

美国数据走弱令市场降温，标普500指数自纪录高位回落，AI主导的财报仍提供支撑

标普500高位回调：经济数据走弱与通胀降温压制需求，但AI驱动盈利超预期、估值回落支撑中期前景。低VIX下可用看跌、跨式与日历价差对冲事件风险。

17

Aug 2026

零售销售疲软令美元下挫，美债收益率升至数十年高位，黄金走强

7月零售低迷致美元回落、金银飙升；超长期美债拍卖收益率创新高，债务逼近40万亿推升利率与波动。大行白银巨额净空叠加兴登堡凶兆，警惕回调。

17

Aug 2026

欧元延续四周连涨，因美德两年期国债收益率利差收窄，目标指向1.17区间

欧元兑美元连涨四周，欧元区经济韧性叠加美德2年期利差收窄至-136bp支撑上行；若突破1.1625/50，或加速上探1.17中段，支撑1.1550/75。

17

Aug 2026

加拿大元走强，强劲CPI与油价上涨施压美元/加元

强劲通胀数据叠加油价高企点燃加元多头：加拿大7月CPI与核心CPI超预期，USD/CAD跌至1.3852；美联储加息预期降温、美元承压。

17

Aug 2026

尽管加拿大CPI高于预期，市场押注欧洲央行收紧政策支撑欧元，欧元/加元持稳

EUR/CAD报1.6070偏强，加拿大CPI回升支撑有限；市场押注欧央行续紧、欧元区增长修复，隐波7.1%利于牛市价差，目标1.6300。

17

Aug 2026

星展银行上调台湾2026年GDP增长预测至11.6%，预计实现两位数增长并在12月加息

星展三度上调台湾GDP展望：2026年增速11.6%、2027年5.6%，或创三十年新高；内需与财富效应共振，通胀黏性支撑四季加息预期。

17

Aug 2026

美元跌至两个月低点，疲弱美国数据强化美联储鸽派押注，日元与黄金走强

美国零售销售意外下滑拖累美元创两月低位；能源与地缘风险左右通胀路径。市场押注美联储转鸽、日银加息升温，策略聚焦做空美元/日元、做多黄金。

17

Aug 2026

加拿大7月核心CPI环比持平于0.2%，强化市场对加拿大央行降息的押注

加拿大7月核心CPI环比持平0.2%，通胀动能趋稳，强化央行降息预期。OIS隐含降息概率超70%；短端做多、曲线陡峭化，加元偏弱宜配置看跌期权。

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