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Live Updates

18

Aug 2026

道明证券预计在供应紧张、霍尔木兹海峡风险及成品油库存偏低的背景下，布伦特原油将维持在每桶90美元以上

供给偏紧叠加霍尔木兹风险，TD上调布伦特高位预期：2026年前难回常态，三个月或再涨5–10美元，重返100概率升；建议配置看涨期权、做多波动率并做多裂解价差。

18

Aug 2026

加拿大丰业银行预计美元/加元接近1.3870，利差收窄且油价支撑加元，汇价偏空

丰业银行称美元/加元近1.3870接近均衡，因利差收窄与油价坚挺看空；公允值降至1.3843，目标1.3817乃至1.35-1.37，反弹1.39宜做空。

18

Aug 2026

美国7月成屋签约销售环比下降2.2%，强化美联储降息预期并提振债券需求

美国7月成屋签约销售同比降至-2.2%，需求显著降温。高融资成本压制成交前景，强化美联储降息预期；建议多美债与SOFR、对冲XHB并做空美元。

18

Aug 2026

受回购提振且艾略特波浪突破信号指向68–76美元目标，Equinor股价创历史新高

Equinor自2020低点强势修复并创历史新高，技术面进入艾略特(III)浪扩展，目标68–76美元；基本面现金流稳健支撑回购。策略：回调30–32布局期权。

18

Aug 2026

受财政担忧影响，尽管美国国债收益率走高未能削弱避险需求，金价仍企稳于4,400美元附近

金价守在4,400美元、无惧美债收益率冲高，传统“金价—实际利率”负相关松动。财政风险与通胀担忧叠加ETF转净流入，催化看涨期权及牛市价差策略。

18

Aug 2026

英镑下挫，英国就业数据走弱，英镑兑美元测试1.3520支撑位

英镑因英国劳动力市场走弱承压，GBP/USD跌至1.3530并逼近1.3520关键支撑；失业率4.9%高企。想抓机会？布局看跌或波动率策略，警惕破位下探1.3450。

18

Aug 2026

美国数据走软支撑暂停加息预期，金价企稳，但中东原油风险限制上行空间

美国通胀与就业走软支撑金价，美联储或维持利率不变，短端收益率企稳、美元偏弱促资管增配多头；中东油价冲击限制上行，或推升利率定价。TD预计2027年前4200-4500美元震荡，后续上行。

18

Aug 2026

新西兰债券离岸持有占比上升，投资者预期新西兰联储（RBNZ）或转向鸽派

外资加码新西兰国债：7月离岸持有人占比升至58.9%，非居民持仓增至1,224.7亿纽元。通胀预期锚定削弱再加息逻辑，建议布局NZD下行与接收互换。

18

Aug 2026

美国Redbook零售销售增速放缓至7.6%，强化市场对美联储政策宽松的押注

美国Redbook同比降至7.6%引发关注：零售动能降温或缓释通胀，强化美联储9月转鸽预期；利率期货偏多债券，零售ETF波动或升，宜用期权对冲。

18

Aug 2026

加拿大7月新屋开工不及预期，推动市场押注加拿大央行降息

加拿大7月季调新屋开工年化22.91万套，显著低于预期24.8万套，释放地产降温信号；债市或押注更鸽派降息，建议做多加债、布局加元及银行股/REITs看跌期权。

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