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20

Aug 2026

美国初请失业金人数低于预期，强化美联储按兵不动预期，推动美债收益率上行并提振美元押注

初请失业金降至20.6万、优于预期，凸显美国就业韧性；美联储9月大幅降息概率下调，利率或高位更久，建议配置美债看跌、卖出标普虚值看跌及美元看涨期权。

20

Aug 2026

美国财政部将长期国债回购规模加倍，美元走软、金价飙升突破4,500美元关口之际，收益率短暂降温

美财政部意外加码流动性回购“抽走久期”，一度压降美债收益率、打压美元并推升黄金与股指；然赤字与再融资压力未解，叠加油价与鹰派纪要，波动或再起。

20

Aug 2026

受美国国债收益率与美元在财政部回购推动的反弹后企稳影响，金价下跌；油价上涨

美债收益率与美元企稳致金价回落，前日受财政部回购刺激大涨后震荡。就业韧性、美联储偏鹰及油价走高推升波动率；建议期权对冲，关注4,512/4,380关键位。

20

Aug 2026

三菱日联金融集团（MUFG）AI提示7月FOMC会议纪要措辞偏鹰，但美元持续走低趋势未改

MUFG AI文本分析指7月纪要略偏鹰但不足重定价；“several”支持加息。AI短期推升通胀、长期提效；关税传导趋尽偏鸽。建议美元逢高做空并用短久期期权对冲。

20

Aug 2026

美股期货涨跌互现，美联储会议纪要引发压力；在霍尔木兹紧张局势下，财政部回购提振谨慎情绪

美股期货分化，7月FOMC纪要偏鹰压制风险偏好；美财政部拟加倍长期国债回购或压低收益率、施压美元。霍尔木兹风险再起，期权对冲成关键。

20

Aug 2026

随着印度央行维持利率不变并逐步退出FCNR(B)计划，印度经济增速料降温至6.7%

增长放缓信号显现：印度2026-27财年增速料降至6.7%，通胀约5%促RBI维持5.25%利率。退出FCNR(B)叠加7000亿美元储备，建议卖波动率、OIS短久期，并以油金期权对冲。

20

Aug 2026

美国10年期国债收益率企稳，财政部将长期国债回购规模翻倍；美联储会议纪要公布后美元仍走软

美债10年期收益率因财政部将长期回购规模翻倍短线回落后反弹至4.67%。但回购难改财政赤字与通胀约束，收益率及美元或再走强。布局期权。

20

Aug 2026

香港7月CPI同比持平于1.7%，利率前景维持稳定，恒生指数衍生品获支撑

香港7月CPI同比1.7%、环比0.2%符合预期，通胀平稳压低政策扰动与近端隐波；关注HIBOR利差，恒指期权可布铁秃鹰，USD/HKD远期均值回归。

20

Aug 2026

南非通胀放缓，但油价与厄尔尼诺风险威胁兰特走势及降息前景

南非8月通胀回落至4.3%，但油价高位与厄尔尼诺致粮价风险或推升中期通胀。策略：买3-6个月USD/ZAR看涨期权，利率端付固定Jibar互换。

20

Aug 2026

受美债财政部加大长端回购影响，美元跌至5月低位；杰克逊霍尔会议前收益率上行受限

美国财政部上调长端回购规模压降收益率，DXY跌至5月低位。FOMC仍存分歧，杰克逊霍尔或释鸽催化续跌，黄金与瑞郎避险受益。

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