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20

Aug 2026

美国四周期国库券收益率小幅上行至3.64%，短端融资成本略有抬升

四周期T-Bill中标收益率升至3.64%，较前期抬升1.5bp，释放美元短端流动性边际趋紧信号；STIR及SOFR期货料再定价，建议熊市趋平与看跌期权对冲。

20

Aug 2026

贝森特暗示扩大美债回购规模，预计财政赤字将见顶并推进财政整顿在即

贝森特称或将美债回购扩至40亿美元以上释放收益率偏离信号，否认利率驱动；赤字或见顶转向财政整固，并与美联储协同管理流动性。

20

Aug 2026

在霍尔木兹海峡风险与美伊紧张局势支撑油价风险溢价下，WTI油价攀升逼近86美元

WTI周四收涨至85.85美元，地缘冲突推升风险溢价；霍尔木兹与曼德海峡航运约束、对伊朗制裁趋严支撑看涨期权策略，关注87.38阻力、85支撑。

20

Aug 2026

瑞典央行维持利率在1.75%不变，通胀趋稳回升，提示地缘政治风险并暗示年末可能加息

瑞典央行维持政策利率1.75%。核心通胀近2%且夏季数据超预期，劳动力走弱、定价温和。中东局势扰动有限但不确定性升温，年内仍保留加息选项。

20

Aug 2026

埃及央行维持利率19%不变，政策制定者在通胀风险与经济增长之间寻求平衡

埃及央行维持政策利率走廊锚定19%不变，符合预期；紧缩取向延续，融资成本高企、信贷偏紧持续，通胀与增长权衡再成市场焦点。

20

Aug 2026

美国国债借款冲击打压美元，交易员关注澳元兑美元与英镑兑美元再度做空；聚焦铜价及KRE指数反转

美财政部再融资预期加剧债务供给担忧，美元指数承压触及关键支撑，商品反弹。策略：分批止盈，逢高重建AUDUSD/GBPUSD空头；铜现看跌反转端倪，KRE或筑顶警示金融回调。

20

Aug 2026

投资者评估贝森特推动的财政部债券回购举措，因美国债务突破40万亿美元且维持利率不变在即

美债回购计划评估持续，国债总额破40万亿；公众持有债务32.26万亿为关键。140亿美元回购仅占长债0.14%，或致融资短端化。纪要偏鹰，利率或高位至2027，宜期权捕捉波动并对冲回撤。

20

Aug 2026

随着资金流入，互换窗口提前关闭；印度央行马尔霍特拉称美元远期净空头规模可控

印度央行称远期美元净空头“可控”，干预仅抑波不锚汇；预计吸引800亿美元外汇、储备近高位，卢比料窄幅震荡，宜卖出看涨及短期期权策略。

20

Aug 2026

俄罗斯央行称外汇储备升至7,556亿美元，周度增加156亿美元

俄罗斯央行外汇储备跃升至7,556亿美元，单周增156亿美元，强化流动性缓冲预期；分析指金价重估与油气回流驱动，或压缩新兴市场风险溢价，利好黄金、原油期权及CNH替代策略。

20

Aug 2026

美国初请失业金人数四周均值升破20万，强化市场对美联储降息的押注

8月14日美国初请失业金四周均值升至20.4万并站上20万，劳动力市场降温信号增强。策略：做多SOFR看涨、配置标普保护性看跌/VIX价差，并买入EUR/USD看涨捕捉美元走弱。

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