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Live Updates

21

Aug 2026

加拿大皇家银行预计加拿大第二季度GDP反弹至3%以上，警告贸易提振效应消退或限制加元上行空间

RBC料加拿大6月GDP环比+0.2%、二季度年化或超3%，主因消费回升与汽车出口修复；但动能难续。强数据或推升加元与短端利率，宜借机布局加元空头及曲线陡峭化策略。

21

Aug 2026

金价升至4,604美元，美元走软与央行需求支撑连续第三周上涨

金价重返4,500–4,550并上探4,604创阶段新高，周线或三连涨；美元走弱与美债收益率回落驱动，央行及ETF增持强化支撑，关注4,605突破与4,500失守风险。

21

Aug 2026

英镑/美元受益于美元走软走高，但英国零售低迷抵消PMI回升及市场对英央行加息押注升温的影响

美元整体走弱提振英镑/美元走高；英国7月零售数据显著不及预期、动能回落，但8月综合PMI升至四个月高位。掉期曲线仍计入未来12个月英国央行累计加息50个基点。

21

Aug 2026

美元走弱，市场担忧美国财政政策与美联储政策发生冲突或引发汇率错位

美债收益率趋稳下美元仍弱，市场重估财政赤字与政策错配引发汇率失序风险。关注美元看跌期权、USD/JPY战术做空及EUR/USD跨式捕捉波动机会。

21

Aug 2026

布伦特原油维持在每桶94美元附近，霍尔木兹海峡风险与低库存推动原油及柴油看涨押注升温

霍尔木兹海峡供应扰动溢价叠加柴油库存偏紧，布伦特稳守94美元、月内涨近20%。IEA称全球库存跌破79亿桶，建议配置看涨期权、多头并布局裂解价差。

21

Aug 2026

受中东航运风险提振，WTI逼近三周高位，尽管美国原油库存意外增加

WTI徘徊86.5美元、逼近三周高位，霍尔木兹与红海扰动抬升风险溢价；但美原油意外累库压制上行。衍生品宜备波动：近月看跌对冲，牛市价差控成本，关注跨期价差机会。

21

Aug 2026

美元走弱及美债回购引发波动，金价逼近4,600美元

冲击4600美元后回落，黄金月涨约13%仍三周连升；回购扩容压美元、央行与ETF托底。警惕收益率与通胀扰动，期权对冲等待突破。

21

Aug 2026

美元走弱，因美债释放财政聚焦信号；日本通胀升温，推升9月日本央行加息预期

美元再度走弱，市场聚焦美财政整固表态及收益率波动；日本核心CPI逼近2%推升日债收益率，强化9月加息预期。建议以互换期权、日元看涨与欧元区间策略应对。

21

Aug 2026

Kazāks指出欧洲央行已做好准备，欧元在数据依赖的9月决策预期下维持在1.1710附近

悬念拉满：欧洲央行或再出手回锚2%通胀，9月决议完全数据依赖；前瞻指引失灵，欧元守1.1710，隐含波动或上行，短予期权与€STR对冲受捧。

21

Aug 2026

美国国债收益率反弹至回购前水平附近，日元走弱推升美元，风险资产回落

美债长端收益率回升至回购前，10年4.7%、30年5.24%，压制风险资产；DXY反弹主因日元走弱，USD/JPY逼近159，干预效应阶段性难持久。

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