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2

Jul 2026

英镑和美元走弱、日元大涨，引发干预猜测升温并推动期权波动率上行

日元盘中突升拖累GBP/JPY与USD/JPY急挫，市场揣测日本财务省或临近干预并借低流动性放大效果；期权隐含波动率攀升，建议以虚值看跌/日元看涨对冲风险。

2

Jul 2026

欧元/英镑跌破0.8600关口，英镑空头回补推动，市场焦点转向英国财政风险

EUR/GBP跌破0.8600触发英镑空头去杠杆，负carry与技术破位放大抛压，或缓探0.8545。焦点转向英国政治与预算案，期权布局波动再起。

2

Jul 2026

在美国非农就业数据公布前，美元/加元维持在1.4200附近，油价走软及美联储鹰派言论提供支撑

美元/加元窄幅盘整于1.4200附近，静待美国非农指引利率路径；薪资回升或强化美联储鹰派。油价走弱压制加元。技术面超买，上破区间或指向1.4415。

2

Jul 2026

法国5月预算赤字扩大至933亿欧元，加大对法国国债（OAT）收益率及风险资产的压力

警惕法国财政风险再度升温：5月中央政府预算赤字扩大至-933亿欧元，融资需求或抬升OAT收益率并推宽法德利差；建议做空OAT期货、买入CAC40看跌期权及CDS对冲。

2

Jul 2026

瑞士CPI降温至0.5%，市场权衡瑞士央行进一步降息，美元/瑞郎走势持稳

瑞士6月CPI同比0.5%环比0%均逊前值，强化SNB后续降息预期；美瑞政策分化与利差支撑USD/CHF多头，期权布局0.8150上行，关注0.8035关键支撑。

2

Jul 2026

瑞士通胀率维持在0.5%不变，物价趋稳强化瑞士央行鸽派预期并拖累瑞郎

瑞士6月CPI同比0.5%符合预期，通胀温和巩固SNB维持鸽派、年内再降息预期；瑞欧利差扩大或压制瑞郎，EUR/CHF料温和上行近平价，建议配置看涨期权。

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