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6

Jul 2026

欧元/美元维持窄幅震荡，交易员关注1.1470阻力位与1.1370支撑位

欧元兑美元冲高1.1472后区间震荡，动能走平；短线关注1.1415–1.1455，1–3周温和偏多，上看1.1470/1.1500，严守1.1370支撑。

6

Jul 2026

受霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势推升美元影响，金价持稳于两周高位下方；央行购金提供支撑

黄金小幅反弹但受两周高位压制；霍尔木兹紧张推升美元避险，然降息预期与央行持续净买入托底。关注ISM与官员讲话，技术偏多，阻力2,485/2,500。

6

Jul 2026

市场静待服务业PMI出炉，以检验在美国非农就业数据疲软、通胀回落背景下的美联储政策前景

非农转弱叠加通胀降温，联储加息压力缓释；接下来服务业PMI与ISM成利率路径“试金石”。数据偏弱利多前端债券、压低美元；偏强则警惕收益率反弹。

6

Jul 2026

澳元因数据走软下挫，市场对澳洲联储暂停加息押注升温，AUD/USD承压

澳洲通胀与就业指标走弱，RBA 续紧预期降温，AUD/USD 回落并逼近0.6865。政策分化叠加风险厌恶，美元偏强；期权未平仓增显示看跌押注升温。

6

Jul 2026

英镑兑日元逼近多年高位，收益率利差、日本财政压力及油价风险令日元承压

GBP/JPY再度上攻至216附近，利差275基点强化套息交易。日本高杠杆财政与霍尔木兹油价风险压制日元。CFTC空头攀升，期权布局看涨218-220。

6

Jul 2026

澳元/美元大幅上扬后暂歇，UOB预计进入盘整阶段，澳洲联储与美联储信号相互交织

澳元/美元冲高后动能趋缓，短线或回落测试0.6910，阻力0.6945/0.6955。UOB维持0.6870-0.6980区间震荡，隐波回落利于卖权利金策略。

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