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6

Jul 2026

美国服务业PMI不及预期，显示增长降温并促使市场转向防御性配置

服务业PMI 6月报51.2低于预期，扩张仍在但动能趋弱引警惕；叠加就业降温与核心通胀黏性，市场转向防御，波动率回升，期权对冲与防御板块或占优。

6

Jul 2026

英镑兑日元升至2008年以来新高，收益率利差推动套利交易，干预风险仍存

英镑/日元升至216.75创2008年以来新高，利差驱动套息交易延续；日本或外汇干预成主要尾部风险。隐含波动率抬升推高期权成本，结构性弱日元格局未改。

6

Jul 2026

欧佩克+批准8月配额上调，施压布伦特和WTI油价并强化通胀降温押注

OPEC+8月再增产18.8万桶/日，累计上调94万桶/日，叠加海湾出口恢复压制油价。布伦特72美元承压，库存回升与资金转空强化看跌：优选WTI、XLE看跌期权，利好降息预期与运输消费。

6

Jul 2026

法国兴业银行预计美元升势将重启：增长、通胀与油价因素利好美国，支撑至2026年下半年

法兴称美元短暂喘息属战术回调，受美国增长韧性、通胀黏性、高利率与贸易条件优势支撑，油价与AI投资加持，强势料延续至2026年下半年，逢低布局。

6

Jul 2026

卢比低开：美元走强、油价回落，FII资金回流，FOMC会议纪要公布前市场谨慎

卢比早盘走弱，USD/INR升至95.42，受美元指数回升及FOMC纪要预期驱动。油价下行与FII净流入提供缓冲，汇率或区间震荡偏强。技术支撑94.97，阻力97.10附近。

6

Jul 2026

美元走软推动中东欧货币反弹；匈牙利、捷克通胀数据发布在即，波兰央行料偏鸽派

美国就业走弱令美元回落，CEE外汇短线反弹；匈牙利、捷克通胀或低于央行预测，政策基调趋鸽压制本币。中期仍看多CZK、HUF，做空PLN。

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