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7

Jul 2026

美元指数回吐涨幅，疲弱非农就业数据抑制美联储加息预期，油价涨势回落

爆点：非农不及预期令DXY冲高回落至100.92，FedWatch显示加息预期降温；油价回落缓解短期通胀，美元或转区间震荡，期权可卖短期限波动率。

7

Jul 2026

随着欧佩克+增产且美国原油供应激增，原油“战争溢价”消退，油价承压下行

战争溢价消退致油价回归供需定价：WTI/布伦特分别约68.5/72美元。OPEC+增产、SPR释储叠加美国产量新高，曲线转远期升水；关注EIA、FOMC及OPEC+会议。

7

Jul 2026

荷兰合作银行预计新西兰联储将加息25个基点；新西兰元走势承压，上行空间有限

荷兰合作银行料RBNZ 7月8日加息25bp至2.5%已被充分定价；油价回落与复苏乏力压制鹰派空间，纽元上行受限、下行风险偏大，密切关注措辞变化。

7

Jul 2026

道指在突破53,000点后回落，科技股反弹，市场静待美联储会议纪要

道指冲高回落至5.29万点，标普与纳指走强，资金轮动偏向科技与芯片。非农疲弱但服务业韧性，市场计入美联储按兵不动74%；VIX低位，FOMC纪要成波动催化，期权对冲与做多波动策略或具性价比。

7

Jul 2026

受美元走强及美联储利率前景限制，金价企稳于4,150美元附近，反弹后涨幅受抑

金价围绕4,150美元区间震荡：美元走强与获利回吐压制上行，非农偏弱缓和紧缩预期；霍尔木兹风险降温抑制通胀担忧。关注FOMC纪要与期权策略。

7

Jul 2026

美元/瑞郎走高，霍尔木兹紧张局势下美元需求持续，瑞士失业率回升

美元受避险需求与美瑞货币政策分化支撑，USD/CHF走强；瑞士失业率上行加压瑞郎。市场聚焦FOMC纪要及利率预期，波动或放大，期权策略可布局上行空间。

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