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8

Jul 2026

欧元/美元回落至1.1400附近，伊朗紧张局势推动美元走强，市场静待美联储会议纪要

伊朗局势升级叠加美联储纪要偏鹰预期，欧元/美元回落至1.1400上方徘徊；技术面看跌旗形显现，跌破将指向1.1325及1.1210，期权策略偏空布局。

8

Jul 2026

由于特朗普对伊朗备忘录到期引发霍尔木兹海峡供应担忧重燃，WTI油价跳升至两周高位

美伊冲突升级及特朗普称备忘录失效，霍尔木兹海峡供应中断风险升温，WTI涨逾3%至74.3美元两周高位；关注期权对冲、能源股及进口国货币承压。

8

Jul 2026

三菱日联金融集团警告称，随着经济数据走软及油价下跌削弱鹰派立场，6月FOMC会议纪要已显滞后

MUFG警示：6月FOMC纪要或已滞后，弱就业与油价下挫令鹰派点阵图降温；美元多头交易拥挤，OIS加息定价偏高，或触发反向平仓。

8

Jul 2026

在美联储会议纪要即将公布之际，荷兰合作银行Every权衡“利润美元”投资逻辑与地缘政治风险

美元叙事正由“利润美元”转向地缘政治与经济治国术主导：盟友贸易分化、央行增持黄金推升去美元化对冲。美联储指引趋简致波动抬升，宜布局长跨式与期权对冲。

8

Jul 2026

金价守住4,100美元上方，美元在FOMC会议纪要公布前走软，油价推升通胀担忧限制涨幅

金价守4,100美元但受“更高利率更久”预期与美债收益率上行压制，地缘冲突推升油价与通胀担忧，倾向反弹做空，关注4,164阻力与3,714支撑。

8

Jul 2026

随着通胀回落令焦点转向降息，波兰央行料将维持利率在3.75%不变

通胀骤降令波兰央行7月大概率按兵不动：基准利率3.75%已被定价。FRA下修加息预期、转向降息情景，PLN套息支撑弱化，或跑输更鹰派CZK。

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