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8

Jul 2026

美元/日元在大涨后企稳；美国CPI提振美元，163.00阻力位限制涨幅

美元/日元冲高162.42后维持强势，但动能趋缓；预计短期仅试162.70、163.00阻力压制。美日利差支撑美元，干预风险升温，区间160.60–163.00。

8

Jul 2026

英镑/美元自1.3410回落，美国数据提振美元，回调风险上升

英镑兑美元冲高未破1.3410后动能转弱，回落至1.3349进入修正；关键支撑1.3315，跌破或确认升势终结。非农强、英GDP疲弱推升波动与分化。

8

Jul 2026

油价维持地缘政治安全溢价，美伊紧张局势推升收益率；华侨银行继续看多布伦特原油走势

霍尔木兹遇袭与美撤伊油豁免推升原油安全溢价，美元走强、债券收益率上行、黄金承压。OCBC预计布油温和回落至2026年末75美元，建议卖虚值看涨并配长期看跌对冲。

8

Jul 2026

受中东紧张局势影响且日本央行鸽派立场抑制日元吸引力，美元兑日元延续涨势

中东风险升温与美日政策分化推升美元/日元四连涨，但162.40阻力未破。建议期权做多上行、卖虚值看跌收权利金，警惕日本当局干预冲击。

8

Jul 2026

人工智能推动美国小企业创办，提升初创企业更替率并重塑科技行业以外的招聘格局

市场误读AI：美国优势在于AI降低最小有效规模，催化小企业加速创立并扩散，非线性对冲岗位替代。小企占GDP44%，新设企业+24%；建议做多罗素2000、配置工业与可选消费期权。

8

Jul 2026

欧元/美元上行动能减弱，波动率回落转入区间震荡，期权卖方面向权利金收益布局

欧元兑美元冲高回落，动能趋弱转入区间震荡，预计1.1360-1.1450整理。美欧政策趋同、波动率收敛，衍生品可考虑卖出宽跨式期权收取权利金。

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