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Live Updates

1

Sep 2026

Warsh指出通胀改善有限，美元/日元逼近160，市场焦点转向非农就业数据与新西兰联储（RBNZ）

沃什称通胀回落乏力，市场上调9月加息概率推升美元/日元逼近160且干预风险升温；非农与RBNZ决议成核心催化，收益率高企压制金价。

31

Aug 2026

随着全球收益率上升且市场加大对欧洲央行与日本央行收紧政策的押注，美元指数跌破99.50

美元指数受阻200日EMA回落至99.50下方；油价与收益率齐升但避险失灵。欧日加息预期压制美元，资金转向黄金与欧元，关注98.50支撑与美数据。

31

Aug 2026

在霍尔木兹海峡通行风险与美国制裁推升风险溢价、市场重估美联储政策预期之际，WTI原油上涨逼近85美元

WTI徘徊85美元、单日涨2.5%，主因霍尔木兹海峡通行骤降引发风险溢价，非供给中断；叠加美对伊制裁趋严与加息预期升温，技术阻力86美元、失效82美元。

31

Aug 2026

道指回落，中东袭击推升油价与美债收益率，促使市场重新定价美联储加息预期

中东冲突推升油价与美债收益率，传统避险失效，道指回落至5.33万附近。联邦基金利率期货上调9月加息至近60%，金融条件趋紧压制风险资产。

31

Aug 2026

美元/日元跌破160，贝森特言论提振日元需求并推升干预风险

USD/JPY失守160关口回落，贝森特表态引发日元买盘及干预预期升温。财务省披露15.4万亿日元干预创纪录，期权宜布局短期看跌或跨式。

31

Aug 2026

贝森特称油价将下行，并表示随着美国施压伊朗重启谈判，日元或走强

贝森特称油价或下行，“弃儿行动”施压伊朗重返谈判，美中存利益交集；供给冲击下不宜加息、核心通胀受控；日方将促日元走强。

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