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17

Jul 2026

英镑走弱，美伊互袭引发避险情绪升温，市场权衡美联储与英伦银行政策路径

美伊冲突升级推升避险美元，GBP/USD徘徊1.3470；美英加息预期分化与波动率抬升并存。建议配置短期限看跌、跨式及布油看涨期权对冲尾部风险。

17

Jul 2026

中国人民银行将美元兑人民币中间价定在高于市场预期的较弱水平，交易员押注人民币将逐步贬值

央行将美元/人民币中间价上调至6.7934，显著偏离路透模型6.7734，释放渐进式贬值稳增长信号；建议布局短端USD/CNH看涨价差，并严控干预逆转风险。

17

Jul 2026

美元指数企稳于100.50上方，美国—伊朗紧张局势与美联储预期重新定价抵消周度跌幅

美元指数守稳100.50并反弹，静待特朗普讲话催化；美伊冲突抬升风险溢价与原油、再通胀预期，市场重定价2026加息，建议外汇跨式、原油看涨及做空美债布局。

17

Jul 2026

在中东风险与美联储鹰派立场支撑美元之际，欧元/美元持稳于1.1445附近

EUR/USD徘徊1.1445，市场聚焦中东升级与密歇根信心。红海航道风险或推油价破90美元，避险支撑美元；美联储偏鹰、欧央行或9月加息，建议期权对冲及逢高做空。

17

Jul 2026

伊朗敦促胡塞武装威胁封锁曼德海峡，美军空袭推升油价风险

伊朗要求胡塞随时封锁曼德海峡，红海原油通道面临断供冲击；美军持续升级打击。建议做多波动率，买入布伦特虚值看涨、布局FFA多头及牛市价差对冲。

17

Jul 2026

在中东紧张局势推升通胀并强化美联储加息预期之际，金价下挫逼近八个月低位

中东局势升温推高通胀预期，市场押注美联储高利率更久，压制无息资产；金价亚盘跌至3,975美元逼近八个月低点，红海与霍尔木兹风险加剧。

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