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by VT Markets
Jul 17, 2026
黄金（XAU/USD）周五亚洲早盘下跌至约3,975美元，逼近八个月低点，因中东紧张局势再度升温引发通胀担忧，并强化了市场对美国利率将维持高位的预期，从而推动金价延续跌势。路透社报道称，在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普本周早些时候发出威胁后，伊朗已要求也门胡塞武装做好准备，一旦美国打击伊朗电力基础设施，便关闭红海石油运输通道。红海航运一旦受阻，叠加霍尔木兹海峡相关风险，可能推升原油价格，并促使各国央行更倾向于维持限制性政策，削弱无收益资产（如黄金）的吸引力。
地缘政治因素已盖过美国近期的通胀降温信号。根据本周公布的数据，6月消费者物价指数（CPI）通胀放缓，生产者物价指数（PPI）亦出现回落。即便如此，基于CME FedWatch工具，市场对美联储9月加息的定价概率接近55%。另据世界黄金协会（WGC）数据，各国央行2022年共增持1,136吨黄金，价值约700亿美元，创下有记录以来最高年度净购买量。
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