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17

Jul 2026

由于伊朗威胁封锁曼德海峡引发供应趋紧并加剧市场波动，布伦特原油价格反弹

伊朗扬言封锁曼德海峡推升地缘溢价，布伦特一周涨近12%、波动率抬升；中国到港回补强化近端紧张。关注期权对冲、价差交易与尾部风险。

17

Jul 2026

富国银行上调2026年全球经济增长预期，下调通胀预测，称各国央行政策路径分化

富国银行上调2026年全球GDP至2.7%、下调全球CPI至4.3%，油价假设走弱重塑“增长—通胀”组合；政策分化加剧，衍生品可布局卖波动、接收互换及汇率期权机会。

17

Jul 2026

哈马克警告称，能源、保险及人工智能数据中心加剧负担，通胀压力呈现广泛扩散态势

克利夫兰联储哈马克警示通胀压力广泛且具“黏性”：能源、保险与供应链扰动叠加AI数据中心扩张推升成本，消费虽稳但民生承压，政策行动呼声升温。

17

Jul 2026

欧元/美元小幅走低，市场静待欧洲央行利率决议，隐含波动率保持低位，关注关键支撑位

欧元兑美元清淡回落，市场押注ECB按兵不动且静默期压低隐含波动率。通胀2.8%、经常账户顺差支撑基本面，关注1.1395-1.1405；优选铁鹰/卖跨套利，企稳后转牛市价差布局。

17

Jul 2026

在美元走强与中东紧张局势支撑下，金价徘徊于4,000美元下方，周线跌势延续

金价徘徊4,000美元下方且周线或连跌，美元反弹与加息预期升温压制上行；地缘冲突推升油价与通胀风险。策略：偏空配置，买入8月看跌期权并以原油、DXY对冲。

17

Jul 2026

受能源价格拖累加拿大6月CPI料回落至2.9% 核心通胀或仍维持在2%左右

加拿大6月CPI料降至2.9%、环比-0.2%，能源回落主导，核心通胀持稳。顺势建议做多两年期加债期货、买入CAD/USD看跌；世界杯或扰动服务项，配跨式对冲。

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