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Live Updates

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Sep 2026

欧元区失业率升至6.4%，加剧市场对欧洲央行转向鸽派的预期

欧元区7月失业率意外升至6.4%高于预期，劳动力市场边际走弱。警惕ECB转向更鸽派：可布局做多Euribor期货，并配置EUR/USD看跌期权。

1

Sep 2026

欧元区通胀回升，核心通胀降温，强化市场对欧洲央行降息预期并拖累欧元

欧元区8月HICP同比升至3.3%但核心降至2.4%低预期，通胀降温强化ECB9月降息押注，收益率或下行；策略：多3M Euribor、Bund期权，配置EUR/USD看跌，关注美JOLTS与ISM。

1

Sep 2026

英国M4货币供应增速7月放缓至4.5%，强化市场对英国央行降息的押注

英国M4增速7月降至4.5%释放流动性收敛信号，暗示紧缩见效、通胀温和；策略上可做多SONIA期货押注降息提速，并配置GBP/USD看跌期权对冲汇率回落风险。

1

Sep 2026

布伦特原油站稳关键移动均线上方，地缘政治风险令上行偏向维持不变

布伦特原油守稳50日与200日均线85/84美元支撑，上行动能受地缘风险与债券抛售催化；若突破95美元缺口阻力并企稳，上看102美元及108/110美元。

1

Sep 2026

奥地利失业人数突破30万，8月增幅加剧欧元下行压力并强化降息预期

奥地利8月失业人数升至311.4千人、环比增12.5千人，凸显欧元区经济裂缝与劳动力走弱；市场押注欧央行降息，欧元承压、德债受益，股市波动料放大。

1

Sep 2026

华侨银行将2026年底布伦特原油目标价预测上调至80美元，中东扰动收紧柴油供需平衡

中东供应扰动超预期叠加霍尔木兹风险，OCBC上调2026年布油目标至80美元。库存下滑、运费上升及柴油约束推升风险溢价，建议配置布油看涨期权与柴油裂解价差策略。

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