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2

Sep 2026

欧元/美元企稳，市场对美联储加息预期升温；交易员布局迎接欧洲央行决议及波动率上行

美联储鹰派预期推升美元，EUR/USD徘徊1.1580；ADP弱化、收益率回落受限。临近央行决议，建议短期限跨式、熊市看跌价差及DXY虚值看涨对冲。

2

Sep 2026

ING预计欧洲央行将以偏鸽派的“保险式”加息25个基点应对风险，但能源驱动的通胀将限制进一步收紧政策空间

ING预计欧洲央行下周“保险式”偏鸽加息25个基点至2.5%，能源通胀主导削弱续紧必要性并抬升衰退风险；策略侧重短端波动率回落、牛市趋平与欧元多头对冲。

2

Sep 2026

美元/日元回落，日本央行鹰派暗示9月或加息50个基点，美联储立场令汇价维持高位

高田放鹰推动美元/日元回落，但日银加息或后续暂停、叠加美联储鹰派令利差维持，汇价料仍在160–162震荡；建议短期限看涨价差与区间/障碍期权控风险。

2

Sep 2026

美元走强，受美国与G6国债收益率利差扩大提振，但全球政策收紧限制上行空间

美元受美债与G6两年期利差走阔及就业韧性支撑续强，加息预期居焦点；然他国或进一步收紧政策，缩小分化，抑制美元再创周期新高空间。

2

Sep 2026

随着收益率回落，金价收复4,300美元关口上方，但美联储加息押注与美元走强限制上行空间

黄金跌后反弹重返4,300美元，但中东推升油价引发通胀、收益率仍高及9月加息概率升至70%压制上行；技术偏弱，衍生品宜短线看空防下行风险。

2

Sep 2026

尽管新西兰联储加息，纽元/美元仍大幅下挫，市场焦点转向美国就业报告

纽美汇率跌至0.5810，尽管RBNZ加息至2.75%但指引偏谨慎；9月季节性走弱叠加技术超卖。关注周五非农，建议反抽阻力布局空头并以期权价差控险。

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