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by VT Markets
Sep 28, 2026
TD Securities的经济学家表示，随着近期央行表态仍偏鹰派、官员继续释放进一步收紧信号，美联储10月加息的概率正在上升。他们指出，PCE通胀信号依然坚挺，同时ISM制造业数据出现温和改善；但9月非农就业（NFP）增速偏弱、失业率上行，使得政策预期仍取决于通胀能否降温以及劳动力市场能否保持韧性。
在其展望中，整体PCE通胀预计环比为0.38%、同比为3.8%；核心PCE预计环比为0.32%、同比为3.4%。市场关注焦点将集中在美国经济分析局（BEA）的年度修订。此外，在零售销售表现强劲之后，他们预计名义支出增速为0.9%，折算为实际增速约0.5%。
该团队预计美联储还将加息两次，初步安排在10月和次年1月；加息的时点与幅度将由后续通胀数据表现及劳动力市场韧性所引导。
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