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Aug 2026

美元指数跌破100关口，地缘政治紧张局势缓和及美国数据走弱拖累美联储政策前景

DXY失守100、逼近200日均线考验；地缘风险溢价回落叠加美国就业走弱压制美元。8月CPI或触发再定价：软则下探97.5，热仅短弹。

10

Aug 2026

美元指数企稳于99.50附近，就业报告不及预期令市场焦点转向美国通胀数据

美元指数非农疲弱后企稳，市场聚焦周三通胀或回落与停火降油价。99.50枢轴承压，失守或指向99.00/98.67；建议备波动，布局平值看跌或区间铁鹰。

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Aug 2026

英镑逼近1.3500，疲弱美国就业数据与油价下挫令市场焦点转向CPI与英国GDP数据

英镑/美元升至1.3500附近创阶段新高，美元因疲弱就业与降息预期走弱、油价回落缓解英伦通胀。关注英美CPI/GDP，突破1.3500或快涨150点。

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Aug 2026

穆迪确认罗马尼亚主权评级为Baa3，债券抛售缓和、列伊汇率在5.25附近企稳

穆迪确认罗马尼亚Baa3负展望，缓解ROMGBs相对弱势下的抛压与下行预期。市场押注政策利率6.50%久持，EUR/RON受控震荡，债券与互换迎反弹窗口。

10

Aug 2026

欧元区情绪改善提振欧元/加元走高，霍尔木兹风险令油价关联的加元上行受限

Sentix指数五个月首度转正提振欧元/加元小幅反弹至1.6120；但WTI约77.20美元及霍尔木兹不确定性抬升波动。建议布局跨式/宽跨式，并以CAD看跌期权对冲，关注化工链看跌机会。

10

Aug 2026

美元因美国非农就业数据疲弱下跌，在澳洲联储决议前市场重新定价美联储政策前景

美国非农骤转负且前值大幅下修，三月均值跌破盈亏平衡，触发利率预期下调、美元走弱与美债牛陡。重磅RBA决议，澳元或迎方向选择。

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