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4

Sep 2026

美国就业激增推升美联储9月加息概率，欧元/美元跌破1.16

美国就业强劲再燃9月加息押注：期货定价约60%，美元走强致欧元/美元失守1.16；Warsh鹰派与高收益率强化预期，市场聚焦下周CPI定调。

4

Sep 2026

加拿大Ivey采购经理指数（PMI）飙升至64.3，超预期并重塑加元及利率预期

S&P Global加拿大艾维PMI 8月飙至64.3，大幅超预期56.2，释放未计价扩张信号：加元偏强、短端利率上行压力增，关注能源板块期权与就业验证。

4

Sep 2026

美国非农就业人数超预期；CPI公布前美联储9月加息概率小幅上升

8月非农新增16.2万、失业率4.1%推升9月加息预期至16bp；市场聚焦CPI（整体0.4%、核心0.2%）。策略：做空SOFR、买美元、TLT期权跨式。

4

Sep 2026

英镑跌幅收窄：美国强劲就业数据提振美元，美联储加息预期保持坚挺

美国非农超预期推升美元后回落，镑美自1.3482反弹至1.3512。FedWatch加息概率升至60%，关注CPI/PPI。建议铁鹰、跨式与虚值看涨对冲波动。

4

Sep 2026

随着美墨贸易谈判推进，墨西哥比索走强；受PMI下滑影响，美元/墨西哥比索跌破17.00

USD/MXN 跌破17关口，受墨美贸易磋商提速与政策协同提振。对华汽车进口大降护盘就业，但制造业PMI转入收缩，隐含波动或抬升，短线反转风险上升。

4

Sep 2026

欧元区零售销售疲软拖累欧元/英镑下探，欧洲央行与英国央行政策分化仍为市场焦点

欧元/英镑回落至0.8590，欧元区零售数据疲弱拖累短线；但欧央行加息预期对比英央行按兵不动，叠加英国预算案财政风险，建议布局看涨期权。

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