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19

Aug 2026

特朗普称与伊朗谈判已无可能，美国实施封锁令原油期权市场风险溢价上升

特朗普否认与伊朗谈判，海上封锁持续、霍尔木兹通航但地缘风险溢价攀升。配置布伦特/WTI波动率上行：买虚值看涨、跨式，并增配黄金与VIX看涨对冲风险。

19

Aug 2026

在政策环境平稳背景下，美元/离岸人民币（USD/CNH）波动率回落、汇价陷入窄幅震荡，期权卖方瞄准权利金收益

USD/CNH陷窄幅横盘，10日波动率降至4%下，短线料守6.7390-6.7470。关注破6.7530/回落6.7300。低波动下宜卖波动策略，警惕数据与央行动向破局。

19

Aug 2026

美元/新元自1.2752低点反弹，但在盘整延续下美元倾向仍偏空

USD/SGD急挫破1.2765后反弹收1.2778，短线转入1.2760-1.2795震荡。中期美元偏弱，或下探1.2740；1.2810/1.2840成关键阻力，空头宜伺机布局。

19

Aug 2026

美元/瑞郎自50日移动均线反弹，0.8135突破后目标指向0.8207

USD/CHF 反弹至0.8127逼近0.8135阻力，RSI偏多；上破看0.8200/0.8207，建议短期买入看涨期权；失守0.8100转空，关注0.8084/0.8049及0.8000。

19

Aug 2026

美元/日元持稳于159.60附近，霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势推升美元需求，尽管美国经济数据喜忧参半

美元/日元159.6企稳上行，霍尔木兹局势推升美元避险需求。美数据分化；技术阻力159.69-159.73，突破或冲160。建议短期看涨期权或牛市价差。

19

Aug 2026

印尼2027年预算拟实现6%经济增长目标，财政赤字率定为2.4%，同时面临印尼盾与债券收益率风险

印尼2027预算以汇率17,500/GDP增速6%与赤字2.40%设定“安全垫”，并假设10年期SBN收益率6.90%；外部利率高企或美元走强或推升融资成本，策略聚焦做多美元、IRS/CCS与国债短仓对冲波动。

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