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21

Aug 2026

加拿大皇家银行预计加拿大第二季度GDP反弹至3%以上，警告贸易提振效应消退或限制加元上行空间

RBC料加拿大6月GDP环比+0.2%、二季度年化或超3%，主因消费回升与汽车出口修复；但动能难续。强数据或推升加元与短端利率，宜借机布局加元空头及曲线陡峭化策略。

21

Aug 2026

金价升至4,604美元，美元走软与央行需求支撑连续第三周上涨

金价重返4,500–4,550并上探4,604创阶段新高，周线或三连涨；美元走弱与美债收益率回落驱动，央行及ETF增持强化支撑，关注4,605突破与4,500失守风险。

21

Aug 2026

英镑/美元受益于美元走软走高，但英国零售低迷抵消PMI回升及市场对英央行加息押注升温的影响

美元整体走弱提振英镑/美元走高；英国7月零售数据显著不及预期、动能回落，但8月综合PMI升至四个月高位。掉期曲线仍计入未来12个月英国央行累计加息50个基点。

21

Aug 2026

美元走弱，市场担忧美国财政政策与美联储政策发生冲突或引发汇率错位

美债收益率趋稳下美元仍弱，市场重估财政赤字与政策错配引发汇率失序风险。关注美元看跌期权、USD/JPY战术做空及EUR/USD跨式捕捉波动机会。

21

Aug 2026

布伦特原油维持在每桶94美元附近，霍尔木兹海峡风险与低库存推动原油及柴油看涨押注升温

霍尔木兹海峡供应扰动溢价叠加柴油库存偏紧，布伦特稳守94美元、月内涨近20%。IEA称全球库存跌破79亿桶，建议配置看涨期权、多头并布局裂解价差。

21

Aug 2026

受中东航运风险提振，WTI逼近三周高位，尽管美国原油库存意外增加

WTI徘徊86.5美元、逼近三周高位，霍尔木兹与红海扰动抬升风险溢价；但美原油意外累库压制上行。衍生品宜备波动：近月看跌对冲，牛市价差控成本，关注跨期价差机会。

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