Live Updates

24

Aug 2026

道明证券预计，随着油价冲击消退，加拿大央行将把政策利率维持在2.25%直至2026年

TD Securities料加拿大央行隔夜利率2.25%按兵不动至2026年，油价冲击消退、通胀动能温和支撑“延长暂停”；建议布局CORRA多头与卖出加元波动率，关注9月会议与纪要。

24

Aug 2026

加元下挫，因美加贸易谈判破裂；关税升级担忧升温推动美元/加元走高

美加谈判破裂叠加关税升级预期，加元承压致美元/加元升至1.3830；伊朗二级制裁或推升油价制衡涨势。期权建议跨式布局，对冲9月与2027风险。

24

Aug 2026

市场关注澳洲联储会议纪要、美国核心PCE物价指数与GDP数据，油价回落、金价走强

高波动周来袭：RBA纪要、美国核心PCE与GDP、加拿大GDP及杰克逊霍尔讲话或重塑美元定价。油价关注85/90阻力与82支撑；金价突破4,650，警惕超买回撤。

24

Aug 2026

加拿大皇家银行警告称，美国50%关税或冲击加拿大出口商，并对加元及债券构成下行压力

RBC警示：美国338条对加出口约5%商品征50%关税，冲击塑料、电机、家具木制品并或外溢CUSMA；加元波动上行，BoC料按兵不动，债券利率下行与产业对冲窗口开启。

24

Aug 2026

MUFG认为，关税升级风险驱动加元走势，美元/加元逼近1.4000

MUFG称，美对加200亿美元商品征50%关税落地令加元承压，走势取决于争端升级与报复风险；油价支撑减弱。建议布局USD/CAD看涨与波动率策略。

24

Aug 2026

霍尔木兹航运股飙升，伊朗原油出口受阻；WTI测试突破，VIX维持低位震荡

霍尔木兹海峡通行量两周飙升近400%，但伊朗原油对亚洲出口近停、运费创新高，供给仍偏紧；WTI酝酿反头肩，上破85.95–87.84或指向100；VIX低位或推升标普至8,000，关注英伟达财报。

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