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20

Jul 2026

澳洲就业增长料放缓，失业率料持稳；市场下调澳洲联储加息预期

澳洲6月就业料仅增1.5万、失业率守4.4%，高于RBA预测，劳市降温。加息60%定价或偏高，或促澳元走弱至0.6500；考虑做空AUD/USD或买看跌期权。

20

Jul 2026

汇丰认为，纽元/美元受益于新西兰央行（RBNZ）收紧政策及较强经济数据支撑，但油价风险仍挥之不去

纽元/美元现底部契机：纽央行升息至2.50%、PMI冲59.7撑基本盘，汇丰看按季渐进加息。短线可做多期权；但中东冲突推高油价恐逆风，宜配保护性put。

20

Jul 2026

在欧央行指引与美联储不确定性形成对比之际，欧元关注支撑位，欧元/美元突破前景升温

欧元/美元迎破局？市场重估地缘风险：ECB指引更清晰、9月加息概率87.8%；Fed淡出前瞻指引引入不确定性溢价。策略：买近价看涨或偏多风险逆转。

20

Jul 2026

英镑持稳，伯纳姆入主唐宁街，预算案与提前大选风险在前

英镑与英债对伯纳姆入主唐宁街反应冷静：GBP/USD守1.28、隐波6.2%。但秋季预算或突袭大选恐引爆波动。趁低波卖权利金或买价外看跌。

20

Jul 2026

加拿大6月通胀降温至2.8%，推动市场加码押注加拿大央行降息

加拿大6月通胀意外降温：CPI降至2.8%、核心贴近2.1%目标，降息预期升温拖累加元。策略：做多USD/CAD期权、关注CORRA期货与黄金看涨。

20

Jul 2026

加拿大6月核心CPI维持在0.2%，支撑加拿大央行耐心观望，加元交易延续区间震荡

加拿大6月核心CPI环比再升0.2%持平，通胀受控，央行降息压力降温。机会来了：CORRA卖波、加元区间期权收时间价值，并配深度虚值对冲。

20

Jul 2026

加拿大6月CPI下跌0.4%，加央行降息预期升温，加元承压

加拿大6月CPI环比意外跌0.4%（预期-0.2%），通胀降温超预期：BoC降息空间扩大。加元或受压，利率敏感股料反弹，关注BAX、USD/CAD与TSX60期权布局。

20

Jul 2026

WTI反弹回升至81美元上方，叶门胡塞武装宣布对沙特阿拉伯实施海上封锁

胡塞宣称即刻对沙地实施海上封锁，地缘风险点燃油市：WTI反弹至81.35美元，波动料飙升；看涨期权、近远月价差可布局，但务必严设止损。

20

Jul 2026

商业银行预计欧洲央行7月按兵不动，油价走高且PMI走弱下聚焦9月动向

油价升温、增长转弱夹击！德商行：欧央行本周料重申通胀风险但不锁定9月加息；周五PMI定方向，建议用利率/欧元期权对冲波动。

20

Jul 2026

英国通胀料维持在2.7%，服务业价格仍坚挺，燃油价格推动能源成本上升

英国6月CPI料降至2.7%低于英伦银行预测，核心2.6%持平；服务通胀仍偏强3.6%。燃料推升能源，ONS采样与Ofgem上限调整或左右降息预期。

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