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Live Updates

22

Jul 2026

在美伊紧张局势推升美元之际，纽元/美元走软，尽管新西兰通胀回升且纽储行释出鹰派信号

纽元兑美元跌至0.5815：新西兰通胀飙4.1%推升9月加息预期，但美伊紧张引爆避险美元。策略瞄0.5750，利率互换pay fixed，配3–6个月期权。油价破90美元，提高能源对冲需求。

22

Jul 2026

渣打观察：7月中央政治局会议料优先推进财政政策落实，而非推出新一轮刺激，货币政策属配套措施

别等“大水漫灌”头条：渣打料7月政治局重在加速落实既有财政、货币政策辅佐；H2财政与基建回升，资金倾向AI、绿色、高端制造与民生，铜锂及科技清洁能源或受惠。

22

Jul 2026

日圆回吐涨幅，日本央行鹰派言论与中东紧张局势令美元/日圆维持在163附近

日圆回吐涨幅，USD/JPY守在163关口：BoJ传更鹰、干预阴影叠加中东局势推油价。警惕“爆炸性波动”，可用短期跨式、虚值看跌及原油/JGB对冲。

22

Jul 2026

美元/日元突破163，日本警告将干预，关税推升美国国债收益率上扬

美元/日元破163创1986年来新高，日本口头干预难挡利差。美债收益率受油价与关税推升至高位，美元偏强但仓位拥挤，慎追涨，期权对冲防反转。

22

Jul 2026

EIA报告美国原油库存意外增加引发市场对WTI期权的看空偏好

EIA意外累库201.1万桶、远高于预期去库150万桶，揭示供需偏松。衍生品宜转看跌：买近月Put或熊市看涨价差；WTI或失守78并下探72，留意OVX飙升。

22

Jul 2026

日本央行渐进加息与缩减购债使焦点转向日债波动，日元走强风险上升

日银渐进加息、缩表让日债更受供需与财政风险牵动，JGB波动料升；USD/JPY可买跌捕捉日元走强，利率做陡曲线；AI需求撑出口与日股，可布局日经call。

22

Jul 2026

道明证券预计美元第三季温和走强，2026年下半年转跌；美联储按兵不动

抢先布局：TD Securities 料美元至2026年Q3温和偏强但上行有限；美联储长期按兵不动、避险与油价不确定性托底。策略：区间期权、卖波动，战术做多USD/CNH。

22

Jul 2026

欧元/美元企稳于1.1415附近，中东紧张局势、能源价格飙升及欧洲央行会议限制涨幅

欧元/美元升至1.1415却卡在1.1420；中东冲突推升避险与油气价，欧元承压、DXY守101。关注ECB。布局波动：买短跨式/宽跨式，或做熊市认沽价差看1.1380。

22

Jul 2026

美伊紧张局势推升油价飙涨，通胀忧虑升温；股市走弱，美元指数瞄准103

美伊局势推油价破85美元，通胀忧虑升温；美股阻力位回调，波浪指向续跌。美元指数站上101瞄准103；美元/日元续强但谨防日方干预风险。

22

Jul 2026

日本央行料愿意更早升息，日元走弱推高通胀风险

日银官员对更早加息转趋开放，日元走弱推升通胀风险；USD/JPY聚焦163、波动或放大。策略：短期限跨式/宽跨式捕捉波动，美元多头用风险逆转对冲，利率掉期可押10月加息。

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