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31

Jul 2026

欧洲股市小幅走高，欧元区通胀居高不下冲击债市，亚洲科技股波动持续

欧股开高但被黏性通胀与财报夹击；亚洲因240亿美元清盘后反弹。日圆干预引汇市巨震。策略：半导体买保护性看跌、USDJPY看跌、利率互换期权及油金尾部对冲。

31

Jul 2026

英镑回落，市场下调英伦银行加息押注；美联储前景疑虑升温，美元走软

英镑受BoE加息预期降温拖累，GBP/USD报1.3444；9月加息概率60%降至30%。美元因Fed路径疑虑走软。衍生品宜做空英镑、做多美元波动，并用原油期权对冲地缘风险。

31

Jul 2026

欧元区通胀升至2.9%，核心通胀小幅走高，强化欧洲央行鹰派立场

欧元区7月HICP升至2.9%，核心意外加速至2.5%，ECB或更久偏鹰；欧元回落至1.1517反成买点。关注Euribor空头、payer swaps与跨式期权捕捉波动。

31

Jul 2026

意大利通胀意外上行或令BTP-Bund利差扩大，增加欧洲央行降息难度，并提振欧元

意大利7月HICP按年2.9%超预期，通胀更顽固！BTP收益率与意德利差或走阔，降息定价下调；欧元短撑、金融股受惠，成长股承压。

31

Jul 2026

意大利7月CPI符合预期报2.8%，维持市场对欧洲央行政策预期与意大利国债（BTP）利差稳定

意大利7月CPI同比2.8%且符合预期，通胀趋稳提振欧元区债市情绪。BTP-Bund利差料窄幅，波动率或收敛；关注卖权利金、短端与欧元中性期权策略。

31

Jul 2026

欧元区核心协调消费者物价指数（HICP）高于预期，推升欧央行“更高更久”风险，波及债券、外汇与股市

欧元区7月核心HICP意外升至2.5%高过预期，通胀更顽固！市场押注ECB高利率更久：短端债可考虑做空，欧元或走强，股市用Euro Stoxx 50看跌期权对冲。

31

Jul 2026

欧元区7月核心通胀停滞，助长市场押注欧洲央行降息，推动欧元同业拆息期货走高

欧元区7月核心HICP环比意外归零，通胀动能降温或快于预期！市场或押注更激进降息：Euribor走强、欧元承压，德债反弹，欧股迎来利率顺风。

31

Jul 2026

英国央行以6比3投票维持利率不变，并释放对加息保持耐心的信号，英镑面临下行风险

英伦银行按兵不动、6–3投票更胶着却拒绝放鹰；若战事降温，降息或重回议程。市场削减紧缩定价，英镑支撑转弱，趁早布局做空与看跌期权。

31

Jul 2026

随着霍尔木兹海峡航运恢复、供应忧虑缓解，WTI跌破80美元

WTI 连跌两日逼近80美元，霍尔木兹通行回升至战前30%–35%降温供应忧虑；若升至50%–60%或重回过剩。中东冲突未歇，短线波动与对冲机会并存。

31

Jul 2026

葡萄牙7月CPI下跌0.5%，推动市场押注欧洲央行降息与欧元走软

葡萄牙7月CPI按月跌0.5%逆转前值0.1%，通胀动能转弱贴近欧央行目标。利率期货与债券或迎买盘，欧元偏弱，留意数据公布波动与收紧止损。

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