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Live Updates

31

Jul 2026

美元/加元反弹，美元走强，尽管加拿大GDP增长，市场仍押注美联储加息

USD/CAD从1.3991反弹至1.4045，美元偏强压过加国GDP利好。市场押注美联储9月加息（65%），可用1.4100/1.4200牛市价差，留意油价波动冲击。

31

Jul 2026

日本央行维持利率在1%，植田转趋鹰派；道明证券料12月加息并警示干预风险

日本央行8比1维持利率1%，植田偏鹰但日元意外平静；TD料12月加息。美元/日元或宽区间震荡，警惕突袭干预：可用铁秃鹰、价外JPY call或长跨式捕捉波动。

31

Jul 2026

美联储降息预期升温拖累美元走弱；欧央行韧性、英伦银行鹰派立场及日本干预因素施压

美元两日暴跌创1月来最差：美联储抗通胀信誉受疑、英银鹰派与日圆干预夹击。欧元区增速胜美国推升加息押注；策略：买DXY价外看跌、做多EUR/USD、英镑看涨，USD/JPY用障碍期权防干预。

31

Jul 2026

金价下跌，美元企稳与市场押注美联储加息构成压力，关注4,000美元支撑位

黄金跌回4,037美元：美元企稳与Fed偏鹰压制反弹。4,000成关键防线，9月加息概率66%添回撤风险。策略：区间卖权利金+虚值Put对冲，破4,071再转多。

31

Jul 2026

巴西6月名义预算赤字扩大至1660亿雷亚尔，低于预期并加剧财政忧虑

巴西6月名义预算赤字飙至1660亿雷亚尔，远逊预期1332亿，财政脆弱性升温：或推高债务与Selic利率，雷亚尔承压、股市波动，交易员紧急防守布局。

31

Jul 2026

印度外汇储备增加61.1亿美元至6823.5亿美元，强化印度央行支撑卢比能力

印度外储截至7月20日飙至6823.5亿美元、周增61.1亿创高，为卢比筑“弹药库”。RBI或压制USD/INR波动，策略转向卖跨式、铁秃鹰与逢高做空。

31

Jul 2026

澳元/美元在美元走软抵消中国PMI疲弱与澳洲联储加息预期降温影响下，企稳于0.7030附近

AUD/USD 守在0.7030：美元偏弱托底，但中国PMI跌破50压制反弹；美国GDP与澳洲CPI降温令RBA加息概率崩至2%。衍生品宜区间卖虚值期权、偏短期掉期。

31

Jul 2026

道明证券预测加拿大GDP增速将超越初值预估，但6月增长动能降温

加拿大5月实际GDP料升0.2%超预期，制造业、二手房与零售齐发力；工时与就业加速撑基本面，短端利率或高企，利好加元，惟6月或降温。

31

Jul 2026

欧洲股市小幅走高，欧元区通胀居高不下冲击债市，亚洲科技股波动持续

欧股开高但被黏性通胀与财报夹击；亚洲因240亿美元清盘后反弹。日圆干预引汇市巨震。策略：半导体买保护性看跌、USDJPY看跌、利率互换期权及油金尾部对冲。

31

Jul 2026

英镑回落，市场下调英伦银行加息押注；美联储前景疑虑升温，美元走软

英镑受BoE加息预期降温拖累，GBP/USD报1.3444；9月加息概率60%降至30%。美元因Fed路径疑虑走软。衍生品宜做空英镑、做多美元波动，并用原油期权对冲地缘风险。

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