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5

Aug 2026

华尔街延续8月涨势；憧憬霍尔木兹局势缓和致油价回落，金属价格反弹

美股8月强势续创新高，霍尔木兹重开预期压油价、降通胀押注。金银趁美元转弱急反弹。策略：指数ETF做看涨价差，能源做空期权，杰克逊霍尔前严控风险。

5

Aug 2026

金价逼近4,256美元，霍尔木兹外交进展提振风险偏好；比特币期权聚焦6.5万美元突破

霍尔木兹外交曙光推升金价至4,256美元，央行年购金逾千吨托底；关注黄金4,279/4,316突破。比特币64,540美元情绪脆弱，紧盯65,000上破做call、跌破64,405转put。

5

Aug 2026

美元/日元企稳于157.65附近，疲弱美国数据拖累走势，日银加息预期升温提振日元需求

美元/日元守157.65，美元数据转弱抵消日元买盘。关注158.04均线与干预“天花板”，BoJ 9月加息概率升至60%，建议布局看跌期权与做多波动率。

5

Aug 2026

英镑小幅走高，疲弱美国就业数据拖累美元，非农就业报告前美元走软

非农前英镑为何更有戏？美元因ADP仅4.4万走弱，GBP/USD守1.346；期权跨式迎波动。关注周五NFP与阻力1.3525、支撑1.3443。

5

Aug 2026

道明证券预计DXY将守于200日均线上方，7月非农就业数据限制美元下行空间

TD Securities：7月非农若逊预期，美元也仅温和回调，DXY料守200日均线99上方；若就业意外强劲，美元仍可再冲，尤其压低英镑、澳元。

5

Aug 2026

EIA数据显示美国原油库存意外增加，WTI下行风险上升

EIA意外累库247.9万桶，较预期少减397.9万桶，敲响夏季需求疲弱警钟。WTI短线恐承压；可用短期认沽或卖出价外认购对冲，紧盯70美元支撑。

5

Aug 2026

美国数据疲软、油价走低削弱美联储加息预期，欧元小幅走高，市场聚焦非农就业数据

欧元趁势走强：美国ADP、ISM偏弱，9月加息概率降至56%，EUR/USD上探1.1554。油价下跌降通胀预期，期权隐波低，非农或引爆突破。

5

Aug 2026

纽西兰元与债券收益率下滑，失业率上升盖过强劲招聘与薪资增长

纽元与收益率因失业率升至5.6%回落，但就业增0.5%、薪资增0.7%仍强。把下跌当战术买点：短期看涨、做多期货；利率互换付固定，逢低做多纽元对冲欧元日元。

5

Aug 2026

美国ISM服务业支付价格指数升至70.3，强化美联储利率“更高更久”预期并推高债券收益率

美国ISM服务业价格支付指数7月飙至70.3，通胀压力再升温，或令美联储延后降息。策略：做空10年美债、押美元走强，期权对冲股市波动。

5

Aug 2026

美国ISM服务业PMI不及预期，强化美联储鸽派押注并促使市场调仓

美国7月ISM服务业PMI仅54.1低于预期54.5：扩张未改却降温。利率押注转鸽，SOFR、国债期权受惠；美元偏弱利多黄金，股市短波动。

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