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Live Updates

6

Aug 2026

巴西维持Selic利率在14%不变，通胀忧虑降温近期降息预期

巴西央行维持Selic 14%不变：高利率更久还是快降息？通胀顽固、经济转弱拉扯，BRL波动收敛；卖出期权、铁鹰、DI期货与互换机会浮现。

6

Aug 2026

受益于霍尔木兹局势缓和希望，黄金大涨；收益率下滑抵消就业数据风险

金价亚洲盘冲上4,255美元，创2月来最大单日升幅：霍尔木兹缓和、收益率回落压低加息预期。周五非农成关键，强则压金；阻力4,400，支撑4,185/4,070。

6

Aug 2026

澳元触及七周高位，澳洲联储决议前“按兵不动”预期升温

澳元升破0.7050创七周新高，重返50日EMA；但Stoch RSI回落，市场押注RBA 8月按兵不动。内需稳、外部与中美数据偏弱，利差变化仍压制上行。

6

Aug 2026

印尼市场关注印尼央行新任行长，美元兑印尼盾区间持稳、利率维持不变

印尼央行换帅未定，代总裁偏好非利率工具稳汇稳流动性。USDIDR困在17,900–18,000；可卖短波动收权利金，并用虚值看涨对冲尾部风险。

6

Aug 2026

美国就业数据疲弱拖累美元，金银齐涨；市场关注霍尔木兹航运进展

美国就业降温压低美元，金银强势领涨：黄金冲至4,247美元、白银逼近62.2。布局金看涨、USD/JPY看跌；霍尔木兹缓和可卖油虚值看涨，并以指数看跌对冲数据风险。

6

Aug 2026

美联储库克暗示利率将“更高更久”，交易员布局迎接鹰派重新定价

库克强调通胀风险更大，美联储或转向偏鹰、利率高位更久。交易员需警惕降息预期被重估：做空2026年SOFR、建熊市看涨价差，并买长债ETF看跌期权对冲收益率跳升。

6

Aug 2026

决策者瞄准竞争性贬值，推高亚洲外汇与期权交易员的重新定价风险

政策制定者联手反对竞争性贬值，日圆与人民币成焦点，亚洲货币或迎重新定价。衍生品交易员应由做空转布局升值：趁权利金低买日圆看涨、以牛市价差博区域反弹。

6

Aug 2026

在霍尔木兹航运谈判与美国库存拖累下，WTI徘徊于三周低位附近

WTI守在74美元三周低位，紧盯霍尔木兹通行谈判变数；叠加EIA库存意外增加，技术面偏空。策略：避裸卖Call，偏向看跌价差或卖价外Call价差。

6

Aug 2026

美国数据疲软打压美元，瑞郎走强；关注霍尔木兹海峡重开谈判及美联储押注

美元数据偏软与霍尔木兹海峡进展压低美元/瑞郎至0.8078，瑞郎续强。9月加息概率降至56%，聚焦周五非农。策略：美元看跌、长跨式油期权、偏多瑞郎。

5

Aug 2026

美股指数走高，纳指领涨；科技股涨势扩散，SNDK财报前波动加剧

美股开盘急拉，纳指领涨扩散至软件、半导体与DRAM，脱离仅靠MAGS。期权数据显示资金偏多；聚焦SNDK财报高波动，逢回撤做多或用牛市卖出价差收权利金。

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