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Live Updates

5

Aug 2026

英镑承压，荷兰合作银行警示英央行重新定价及10月预算风险冲击欧元/英镑

英镑兑欧元反弹后转弱，BoE加息预期或被高估，预算案前gilts与英镑承压。关注EUR/GBP回调0.8550买入，破0.8588或冲0.8650。

5

Aug 2026

DAX在突破25,900后，随着艾略特波浪第五浪涨势增强，剑指26,702

DAX艾略特波浪仍偏多：突破25,900确认第5浪重启，首看26,702。回调可加码call或牛市价差，止损24,651下。欧央行宽松与出口动能支撑。

5

Aug 2026

贝森特承诺支持日元，促使美元/日元回落受关注，日本回购市场准入扩大

贝森特喊“不惜一切”挺日元、拟扩大repo压美元；USD/JPY从163.56回落后反弹近158-160，仍有干预风险。地缘与数据搅动，宜用外汇看跌、股指跨式、原油短期call对冲。

5

Aug 2026

卡什卡利暗示利率立场趋于温和，市场关注美元与美债收益率整固

卡什卡利意外放鸽：不主张猛加息，重心在降通胀非压增长。情绪指数回落，美元与美债或盘整；衍生品可聚焦SOFR短端期权卖权利金与外汇区间策略。

5

Aug 2026

法国兴业银行认为，美日支撑日元是贸易加权层面的举措，旨在抑制亚洲美元走强

美日联手撑日元，背后是美国贸易战术：压制美元对亚洲伙伴走强。市场料单次干预难扭趋势，关注后续动作与波动飙升；期权跨式/看跌布局。

5

Aug 2026

美国就业数据疲软削弱美元与加息押注，金价跃升至4,185美元上方

金价周三飙2.5%冲破4,200后回落，ADP与JOLTS偏弱压美元、油价跌降通胀忧虑，Fed加息概率降至56.9%。周五非农成破位关键。

5

Aug 2026

印度货币政策委员会维持回购利率在5.25%，鸽派倾向暗示暂停期将延长——渣打银行称

印度央行意外偏鸽：回购利率全票维持5.25%，下调FY27通胀、上调GDP。卢比料窄幅低波动；策略：卖短天期USD/INR期权、OIS收固定，企业用远期与领式控风险。

5

Aug 2026

葡萄牙失业率降至5.3%，提振欧元走强并收窄债券利差

葡萄牙Q2失业率意外降至5.3%引爆市场：劳动力更紧或推升工资通胀，压低ECB降息押注；欧元或走强，建议布局EUR/USD看涨期权、葡债利差与PSI多头机会。

5

Aug 2026

丹麦国家银行暂缓买入克朗，利差持续下欧元/丹麦克朗维持锚定

丹麦央行7月未再买入克朗，EUR/DKK回到7.46附近交由资金流主导。利差料维持-0.40点、波动低；交易员可卖波动率，企业趁弱锁远期避险。

5

Aug 2026

英镑/美元走高，美元走软、油价下跌，交易员静待美国非农就业数据

英镑兑美元连涨至1.3450，美元走弱因中东缓和、油价回落降通胀忧虑。技术守1.3379偏多，期权可博上探1.3500；关注周五非农，跌破支撑需止损。

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