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Live Updates

7

Aug 2026

印尼第二季GDP超预期，缓和市场对印尼央行降息押注；渣打上调经济展望

印尼次季GDP增5.3%超预期，虽放缓但韧性十足；渣打上调2026预测至5.3%。降息动力减，印尼盾料稳。就业转弱促曲线趋平、股市偏防御。

7

Aug 2026

道指平收，7月非农就业降温，美债收益率曲线陡峭化，市场对美联储加息概率预期转变

非农转弱，道指却几乎无感守住54,000点；市场改押地缘乐观、降再加息预期。美债曲线变陡、油价78美元偏乐观。关注CPI，53,800成风控关键。

7

Aug 2026

美国非农疲软降温美联储加息预期，日元干预打压美元；市场静待美国CPI

非农降温令9月加息概率降至43%，美元/日元受日美干预波动加剧；油价守80美元、亚欧股走强。下周美国CPI成关键，期权布局利率、汇率与股指波动。

7

Aug 2026

纽元/美元走高，疲弱美国非农数据打击美元，纽西兰央行鹰派立场支撑纽元

爆冷非农重挫美元，纽元/美元升至0.5890；纽储行鹰派托底，技术守0.5884并站上均线，目标0.5909。策略：逢回调做多，止损0.5876-0.5854。

7

Aug 2026

美国就业增长降温、劳动参与率下滑，加剧美联储两难并点燃SOFR波动率交易

非农转负、参与率探底，劳市转弱把美联储拉回就业使命。利率或突变？可用SOFR近月看涨期权与2-10年陡峭化布局，并以股指铁鹰对冲。

7

Aug 2026

欧元/美元守在1.1560附近，中东风险与美国数据左右美元前景

欧元兑美元淡静收高逼近1.1560阻力，就业数据转弱压美元；中东风险牵动油价与情绪。下周美CPI、欧通胀与ECB预期或引爆突破，期权对冲抢先布局。

7

Aug 2026

美国就业报告疲弱打击9月美联储加息预期，推动两年期美债收益率下滑、美元走软

7月非农骤弱拖累美元、2年美债收益率跌8基点，9月加息几近归零！聚焦两份CPI与Jackson Hole：可做多短端利率、买欧元看涨与债券期权。

7

Aug 2026

英镑升至三周高位，疲弱美国非农数据令美联储加息押注降温

非农意外转负拖累美元，英镑/美元逼近三周高位1.3506。市场降息预期升温但通胀鹰派仍在；留意1.35突破波动，跨式/铁秃鹰捕捉机会。

7

Aug 2026

随着9月美联储加息预期降温，市场焦点转向CPI，金价周内飙升突破4,300美元

黄金强势突围：美国就业转弱令9月加息概率降温，金价周涨幅创1月以来最大，突破4,300并上探4,350。焦点转向7月CPI；守稳4,300可续看4,390/4,680，警惕高通胀回调与油价地缘对冲。

7

Aug 2026

加拿大Ivey采购经理指数7月下滑，助长对加拿大央行转鸽押注并令加元承压

加拿大Ivey PMI 7月由59.7跌至54.1，扩张放缓但仍在50上方。动能降温或促BoC转鸽；策略：看USD/CAD、做多加债、对冲TSX。

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