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17

Aug 2026

金价徘徊在4,400美元下方，疲弱美国数据抵消地缘紧张情绪，市场静待美联储会议纪要

金价徘徊4,400美元下方，弱美国数据压制美元却难破阻力；霍尔木兹风险与油价坚挺限制上行。FOMC纪要前仓位谨慎，期权策略把握波动。

17

Aug 2026

中国人民银行设定弱于预期的人民币中间价，强化市场对进一步政策宽松的预期

PBOC把USD/CNY中间价定在6.7873，明显弱于路透估算，释出容忍人民币走弱、稳出口讯号。CPI低迷、PMI近收缩，LPR或再降；关注干预与波动。

17

Aug 2026

美元/日元跌向159.10，日本GDP不及预期且美国零售销售数据承压

美元走软叠加日本Q2 GDP逊预期，USD/JPY连跌至159.10；美零售销售疲弱压低加息概率。双边放缓或引盘整，期权铁秃鹰、买入短期看跌与障碍期权成对冲焦点。

17

Aug 2026

欧元和英镑测试阻力位，日元反弹后回落，加元走弱、瑞郎偏软

外汇市场热度升温：欧元/美元或冲1.1600，英镑测试阻力；日圆、澳元反弹受阻；加元偏空、瑞郎续弱。欧日债息齐升，加密币横摆盘整。

17

Aug 2026

微型WTI原油守住77美元弧形支撑，供应趋紧下瞄准反弹上看93美元

MCL日线守住0.786支撑弧与$77关键位，偏中性偏多；若支撑不破，反弹上看$93。跌破$77则转向100%支撑弧，建议微型期货/看涨期权控风险。

17

Aug 2026

新西兰服务业活动维持接近中性水平，BusinessNZ服务业表现指数（PSI）7月持平于50.6

新西兰7月服务业PSI维持50.6，扩张乏力陷停滞，复苏脆弱或逼央行再降息。交易上可买入银行票据期货、布局NZD/USD看跌期权。

17

Aug 2026

Rightmove指数显示英国8月房屋要价下滑2%，英镑与降息押注升温

英国 Rightmove 8月要价指数按月跌2%，降温超季节性，警示需求裂痕。英镑或承压，SONIA/英债偏多；建商股恐受挫，关注做空或买入看跌期权。

17

Aug 2026

以色列—真主党互袭推升地缘政治风险溢价，油市与波动率交易员保持戒备

以色列恢复空袭黎巴嫩致11死、停火后最惨；加沙谈判仍胶着。地缘风险推高油市波动，WTI回落或难续；策略：做多波动率、逢80美元布局原油与黄金期权。

17

Aug 2026

新西兰银行卡零售销售回升，令市场对纽储行降息押注蒙上阴影，提升纽元上行潜力

新西兰7月电子卡零售销售同比从1.3%跳升至3.4%，消费韧性超预期，或迫使RBNZ放缓降息；衍生品宜下调激进宽松定价，趁低波布局纽元看涨。

17

Aug 2026

新西兰7月刷卡零售销售回升，缓解市场对新西兰央行激进降息的压力

新西兰7月电子卡零售按月反弹1.3%，逆转前值-1.4%跌势，消费韧性或减轻RBNZ激进降息压力。纽元短线看升，利率曲线或重定价。交易留意做多NZD与短端债券波动。

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