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Live Updates

8

Jul 2026

日本5月经常账户盈余不及预期，令日元承压，美元/日元多头瞄准168

日本5月经常账户顺差3,9680亿日元低于预期，警示日元需求转弱。油价高企叠加日银偏鸽，JPY偏空；策略上看好USD/JPY，建议买近月看涨期权博168。

8

Jul 2026

金价跌向4100美元，美国与伊朗在霍尔木兹爆发冲突推升油价与通胀忧虑；市场静待美联储会议纪要

金价回落至4,100美元：霍尔木兹遇袭引爆美伊紧张，通胀忧虑压制无息黄金；但疲弱非农降加息预期托底。纪要待揭晓，波动升温。考虑看涨或跨式。

8

Jul 2026

机构资金外流加剧韩国科技股跌势，台湾抛售仍相对克制

机构撤离韩股、散户接盘，KOSPI 跌入熊市且波动率飙升。AI/半导体拥挤风险引爆抛售，三星利好仍大跌；台股去杠杆较温和。策略：KOSPI 看跌、跨式，或多印股空韩股配对。

8

Jul 2026

布伦特油价逼近76美元美国空袭伊朗并撤销石油许可证霍尔木兹航运担忧升温

霍尔木兹遇袭后伊朗否认、美国加码打击并收紧制裁，布油逼近76美元但仍缺“封锁溢价”。关键看8月窗口与报复风险；建议低成本买远月虚值看涨期权。

8

Jul 2026

美国财政部在霍尔木兹袭击后撤销伊朗石油豁免，推动布伦特与WTI油价上涨5%

伊朗原油豁免19天即被美国撤销，霍尔木兹遇袭火上加油，油价5%重估、风险溢价回归。市场押注封锁风险升温，策略偏向买入8月虚值看涨与做多波动率。

8

Jul 2026

欧元/美元走低，霍尔木兹紧张局势推升美元，市场聚焦欧洲央行押注与美联储会议纪要

欧元未乘ECB偏鹰与美就业转弱东风，因霍尔木兹冲突推升油价与避险美元而跌破1.1410。FOMC纪要成关键，欧元仍受阻1.1450，下看1.1350/1.1300。

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