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8

Jul 2026

ING认为勒庞竞选影响已大致被市场消化，欧元下行风险仍存；欧元/瑞典克朗料于年内稍后回落

勒庞确认参选2027，ING称政治风险已被欧元计价，法债利差稳。短期EUR/USD偏下行，或失守1.140/1.08。瑞典通胀温和，EUR/SEK料久站11上方后回落。

8

Jul 2026

新西兰央行重启加息周期，暗示将进一步收紧；地缘政治拖累纽元升势消退

抢先布局纽元？RBNZ三年来首度加息至2.50%，放话或再升；通胀4.2%高企，中性利率上看4.1%。回调或成买点，关注纽元看涨期权/前端掉期pay fixed。

8

Jul 2026

在通胀风险拖累兹罗提并削弱降息押注之际，市场料波兰央行（NBP）将维持利率在3.75%不变

NBP或按兵不动：ING料波兰利率3.75%维持至年底，降息待通胀更明朗。油价与燃油补贴退场推升风险，兹罗提承压，EUR/PLN或再上攻，期权布局受关注。

8

Jul 2026

油价上涨提振加元走强，“加币”趋稳；就业数据与美联储会议纪要成焦点

油价因中东风险与OPEC+纪律飙升，助加元走强、USD/CAD回落。周五加国就业、FOMC纪要及7月BoC决议将引爆波动，长跨式或可布局。

8

Jul 2026

金价跌向4,050美元，美元走强受美伊紧张局势及美债收益率上升支撑

避险风向变了：美伊紧张升温却推升美元与美债收益率，黄金跌至4,050美元附近。油价上破95强化“高利率更久”，金价短线偏空，关注Fed纪要。

8

Jul 2026

BNY iFlow：尽管通胀保值盈亏平衡率下滑，美国股市仓位仍偏向押注通胀

能源拖累通胀预期下滑，但BNY iFlow显示美股资金仍押注通胀风险，18个月背离扩大。就业、核心通胀黏性支撑：卖短期SPX虚值沽，做XLI看涨价差，并以消费可选长沽防经济骤降。

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