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9

Jul 2026

能源冲击引发市场重新定价欧洲央行鹰派立场，德债与法债收益率跳升，欧元小幅走高

能源冲击推高通胀忧虑，市场重估ECB更鹰：年底或再加息三次。德法国债暴跌、收益率飙。欧元获支撑靠近1.09，但高利率或打压欧股估值与波动。

9

Jul 2026

油价与海湾紧张局势推高美国降息预期，美元维持坚挺并引发新兴市场套息交易回吐

油价飙升与海湾局势骤紧，推高美国利率预期；美联储偏鹰、降息概率降至不足50%。美元料续强，DXY有望上探107，套息交易加速平仓。

9

Jul 2026

华侨银行：中东风险升温、油价与美债收益率走强，预计2026年下半年美元上涨2%至3%

中东局势推油价与美债收益率上扬，美元或迎再一波行情。OCBC 料2H26美元对欧元日圆升2%-3%；若油破100或美经济过热，涨幅或逾5%。

9

Jul 2026

日元走强，伊朗紧张局势压制美元；市场关注美联储风险与日本央行收紧政策动向

中东风险升温拖累美元，日元逆势走强；但美日利差仍支撑USD/JPY偏强。策略：逢高布局看涨期权，同时用价外看跌期权对冲突发避险回撤。

9

Jul 2026

高盛：股市涨势迈入由财报驱动阶段，AI资本开支扩展至大型科技股以外

高盛称股市驱动由估值转向盈利；长端利率高，企业须以利润与Capex证明倍数。AI投资外溢工业电气等。财报波动升，精选个股期权、回购支撑成机会。

9

Jul 2026

欧元/美元企稳：欧洲央行加息押注推高收益率，但美联储叙事令下行风险仍受关注

油价飙升下EUR/USD仍坚挺，因欧元掉期利差反转、市场押注ECB 9月再加息22bp。惟美联储偏鹰与美元强势或主导，欧元恐跌破1.14，可布局看跌期权。

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