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20

Jul 2026

道明证券预计美联储将维持利率不变直至2026年，若政策转向更可能是加息

别急着押注降息！TD Securities 料美联储利率按兵不动至2026年：通胀黏性、就业稳，新领导层更难预测；今年若动更偏加息，SOFR与波动策略需转向。

20

Jul 2026

美元/加元小幅走高，因加拿大CPI降温及中东风险推升美元

加拿大通胀意外降温、美元转强，美元/加元升至1.4045。油市受中东封锁传闻剧震。交易员可用短期看涨、牛市价差与跨式期权抢势对冲。

20

Jul 2026

伊朗释放军事回应信号，调停努力持续推进；高波动环境下布伦特油价守在80美元附近

伊朗释军报复信号但外交未断，局势“可控不稳”撑布油80美元。OVX高企宜卖宽跨/铁鹰赚权利金，并持虚值看涨或牛市价差防尾部油价飙升。

20

Jul 2026

澳洲就业增长料放缓，失业率料持稳；市场下调澳洲联储加息预期

澳洲6月就业料仅增1.5万、失业率守4.4%，高于RBA预测，劳市降温。加息60%定价或偏高，或促澳元走弱至0.6500；考虑做空AUD/USD或买看跌期权。

20

Jul 2026

汇丰认为，纽元/美元受益于新西兰央行（RBNZ）收紧政策及较强经济数据支撑，但油价风险仍挥之不去

纽元/美元现底部契机：纽央行升息至2.50%、PMI冲59.7撑基本盘，汇丰看按季渐进加息。短线可做多期权；但中东冲突推高油价恐逆风，宜配保护性put。

20

Jul 2026

在欧央行指引与美联储不确定性形成对比之际，欧元关注支撑位，欧元/美元突破前景升温

欧元/美元迎破局？市场重估地缘风险：ECB指引更清晰、9月加息概率87.8%；Fed淡出前瞻指引引入不确定性溢价。策略：买近价看涨或偏多风险逆转。

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