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24

Jul 2026

欧元下滑，因市场押注美联储鹰派立场及油价冲击推升美元，迫使欧洲央行保持警惕

美元收益率走高叠加中东战事推升油价，Fed加息概率飙至33.7%压制欧元跌至1.1370。策略：买欧元看跌、空短端利率、买油看涨与欧元宽跨。

24

Jul 2026

墨西哥失业率小幅升至2.8%，市场对墨西哥央行降息预期升温

墨西哥6月经季调失业率升至2.8%释放降温信号，Banxico或更激进降息。交易员可布局MXN走弱：买入近价USD/MXN看涨、接收TIIE互换，并备战波动率上升。

24

Jul 2026

墨西哥6月失业率微升至2.9%，加剧比索压力并推升降息预期

墨西哥6月失业率意外升至2.9%高于预期，劳市降温或促Banxico更快降息；利差收窄恐压MXN，USD/MXN看涨，期权与TIIE收固定成关键布局。

24

Jul 2026

在美联储加息预期抑制涨幅、地缘政治风险推升油价之际，黄金持稳于4,060美元附近

金价暴跌后企稳4,060，油价回落托底但美联储9月加息概率78%压制反弹；中东紧张推升波动。聚焦3,950–4,180区间期权（铁鹰），偏空等回测4,000，并留少量看涨价差对冲。

24

Jul 2026

美股下挫，特斯拉与谷歌资本开支引发科技股领跌抛售，债券收益率攀升

AI烧钱引爆美股抛售：特斯拉、Google自由现金流转负拖累巨型科技。道指跌1%、纳指跌2.1%。油破百、10年息逼4.7%，9月加息概率升至70%。

24

Jul 2026

欧洲央行维持存款利率在2.25%，市场押注9月加息；德银警示进一步风险

欧央行按兵不动却仍偏鹰，市场押注9月升至2.5%达82%。德银称或再加一次。策略：空Euribor、做熊陡、买EURUSD看涨期权。

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