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24

Jul 2026

白宫重启301条款关税，市场严阵以待美联储鹰派指引与油价走高

白宫改用301条对60国加征至少10%关税，令风险更持久；下周FOMC或更鹰。策略：标普买保护性put、原油买短call、做空2026/12 SOFR或买长债ETF put。

24

Jul 2026

英镑与英国国债震荡，伯纳姆减税引发预算忧虑与波动押注

伯纳姆上台推减税却未交代资金，英镑与英国国债一度走弱后企稳。警惕秋季预算放大财政风险：偏向做空GBP、买入看跌期权；国债收益率料续升。

24

Jul 2026

美国闪电PMI、油价飙升及美联储加息概率为美元和欧元/美元定调

周五美国7月PMI初值将引爆汇市：油价飙升或推高投入通胀、强化9月加息押注。美元或走强压欧元/美元，技术面关注1.1350支撑与期权对冲策略。

24

Jul 2026

土耳其央行将政策利率维持在37%，流动性持续紧缩使有效融资利率接近40%

土央行维持回购37%、有效利率逼近40%稳汇，未释“事实降息”信号。紧流动性带来TRY套息窗口，但7月通胀或>2%与储备脆弱，建议配USD/TRY看涨期权护航。

24

Jul 2026

欧元/英镑维持在0.8550附近，欧元区与英国PMI优于预期，关税及中东风险仍存

欧元/英镑徘徊0.8550：欧元区与英国PMI、零售数据齐报喜，却被中东紧张、油价走强与特朗普关税压制风险偏好，避险支撑汇价。

24

Jul 2026

英镑/美元料延续跌势，美联储与英伦银行政策分歧支撑看空英镑交易思路

英镑兑美元或迎“再下一城”？美英政策分化扩大、资金撤退，建议反弹逢高做空：1.2650若失守看1.2480，止损守1.2820，警惕8月低流动性急跌。

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